Stakes are high when Uttar Pradesh chief minister Akhilesh Yadav fights his legendary father. If he manages to be in the saddle despite snipes from former mentors and supporters, he could be a game changer. If not, he would succumb to the BJP juggernaut. Javed Parvesh writes.
Uttar Pradesh is witnessing a high-profile tussle between a father and son. Or is it just another farce? Even Samajwadi Party leaders who had thronged the party headquarters in Lucknow on New Year’s Eve were not sure about the dramatic developments in the organization.
All eyes are on India’s most populated state when Mulayam Singh Yadav is losing control of the party he founded 25 years ago to his son, chief minister Akhilesh Yadav. The power struggle comes just ahead of the assembly election that would decide the fate of the Yadav family as well as the Narendra Modi-led BJP and the Congress.
The Uttar Pradesh election is significant for a variety of reasons. The BJP desperately needs to win the state to show that the Modi government still enjoys the confidence of the people in the aftermath of the demonitization drive. The party has encountered shocking defeats in Delhi and Bihar since the ascent of Modi in the general election of 2014.
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The importance of Uttar Pradesh in the BJP design is evident from party president Amit Shah’s frequent visits to the state. The party would find it difficult to explain a defeat in the first litmus test after scrapping 500 and 1,000 rupee notes on November 8. Modi himself is campaigning in the state with his “Parivartan rallies”.
The BJP also hopes to get a majority in the Rajya Sabha by winning the Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly. The BJP and the Sangh Parivar have many reasons to rejoice in a rift in the Samajwadi Party camp.
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If Mulayam and Akhilesh Yadavs decide to split the party and field separate candidates -- which seems to be the most likely scenario -- both camps would be grounded.
If the father and son decide to patch up, they could still hope to pull off a victory. Some analysts expect Mulayam to climb down later on as 200 of the 229 party legislators are aligned with his estranged son. The chief minister also enjoys considerable popular sympathy.
Expectations for a patch-up seems greater when senior leaders of other parties try to persuade the father and son.
All in the family
Political developments in Uttar Pradesh resemble a soap opera with warring family members plotting against each other. The father expels the son who outgrows him. The son retaliates by kicking out the father and wresting control of the party. The entire clan is split vertically to fight each other.
Eventually, the patriarch is losing ground. His close relatives and loyalists have quietly switched sides. Everyone knows that Akhilesh is not fighting his father. The chief minister is locked in a pitched battle with his uncle Shivpal Yadav.
He has taken care not to utter a single word against his father, fondly called “Netaji”, who is actually trying to defend his younger brother. Even Mulayam has limited his opposition to Akhilesh in paternal admonitions. He has only said that Akhilesh was being misled by Ramgopal Yadav, another member of the clan.
Akhilesh said tough decisions had to be taken to protect the ones you love, after he took over the party’s control from his father and uncle. He kicked Mulayam upstairs, giving him an honorary post as patron of the party. Mulayam had earlier retracted his decision to expel Akhilesh and Ramgopal. Mulayam expelled Ramgopal again as soon as it was clear that the duo had pulled off a coup.
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The Congress is also watching the developments keenly. The party was offered a lifeline in the state by the Samajwadi Party before the split. The Samajwadi Party even offered the Congress 60 seats to contest. Though the Congress wants a united Samajwadi Party to lead the fight, it could go with the Akhilesh faction in case a split is inevitable.
The reasons are obvious. Akhilesh has more popular support. The 43-year-old chief minister enjoys cordial relations with Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi.
Watch and wait
Though Mulayam and Akhilesh had announced separate lists of candidates for the assembly election, no one had started campaigning unless they were common choices by the father and son. After the unexpected coup, Mulayam has upped the ante and told his picks to start election work in their respective constituencies.
The BJP is reading positive messages from the widening rift. The party and its allies grabbed 71 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state in 2014. The Mulayam clan was confined to just five seats. Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi won two seats for the Congress.
The situation has changed now. The demonetization drive by the Modi government has pitted a large section against the BJP-led alliance. Amit Shah hopes to win back this constituency through the opportunity presented by the rift in the Samajwadi Party.
Shah has been busy recruiting the who’s who in the state into the BJP last year. Modi’s mammoth rallies also adds to the BJP’s confidence.
Meanwhile, the Bahujan Samaj Party has also benefited from the crisis in the ruling party. Party supremo Mayawati has unleashed in western Uttar Pradesh a campaign against what she calls a farce. She has also lambasted the Samajwadi Party’s attempts to take the Congress along.
Mayawati says the Samajwadi Party and the Congress were playing to the tunes of the BJP by splitting Muslim votes in the state and weakening the BSP in the process.
She even accuses the Samajwadi Party of hatching a plot for the BJP, which has roped in the Central Investigation Agency and the Enforcement Directorate to arm-twist the Samajwadi Party leadership into submission.
Fresh face
Akhilesh and his loyalists are not intimidated by the prospects of a split in the party. The young chief minister is considered to be successful in purging the party of criminal elements. If he manages to hold on to the gains and win a second term, he would be in the national limelight.
Akhilesh would emerge the youthful icon who could determine the destiny of India, and prime minister Modi, in 2019. What he really wants is to strike off his uncle Shivpal and Amar Singh who put hurdles on his path.
(Next: How Amar Singh muddied the waters in Uttar Pradesh)