Don't take it easy! Rain can fill up Kerala dams again soon, warns expert

Don't take it easy! Rain can fill up Kerala dams again soon, warns expert
M Rajeevan says the whole country does not have a dam management system.

What were the factors that triggered the heavy rains and subsequent floods in Kerala this month? Climate expert M Rajeevan, secretary, Union Ministry of Earth Sciences, who also chairs the Earth System Science Organisation and the Earth Commission, cautions against similar deluges in the future and suggests ways to counter them.

Excerpts from an interview:

What exactly happened in Kerala?

This time, monsoons had been strong in Kerala right from its start in June. That month and later in July, the rains were above normal. In August, rains were particularly heavy on the 4th and 14th, especially in the eastern districts of Idukki, Malappuram and Palakkad. Overall, the state got rains more than usual. By end-July, almost all its 40-odd major dams were full, or at least 90 per cent of their capacity. But it was only in early August authorities chose to open the reservoirs and that entailed flood. It was not just rainwater; the lifting of the shutters too had a role in the deluge we saw in the state.

Was it the right time to open dams?

Don't take it easy! Rain can fill up Kerala dams again soon, warns expert
Kerala witnessed one of the deadliest floods in its history in August.

They were opened when the rains thickened and got nonstop. Many complain about its (wrong) timing. I don’t intend to accuse anyone. All I’d say is that a dam should open its shutters based on certain factors: existing water level, the volume of rain expected in the next three days, the anticipated rise in the water. No such system exists in Kerala, to the best of my knowledge. We in India make weather prediction, but not correlating it with dam waters. We make district-wise predictions about rain. That was being done in Kerala as well.

Are our warning systems outdated?

Don't take it easy! Rain can fill up Kerala dams again soon, warns expert
Shutters of Idukki-Cheruthoni dam were opened after 24 years.

It’s not just Kerala; the whole of our country does not have a dam management system. Usually, the Central Water Commission (CWC) gives out information related to dams with regard to their water levels. I don’t know if Kerala takes such bulletins from the Commission (which is the country’s apex technical organisation in the field of water resources development). Whatever, the CWC has no system to caution Kerala of an impending flood.

The speciality about Kerala’s rivers is that they are small. Unlike, say, the Narmada and the Godavari. They are big rivers that take two or three days to swell in the event of heavy rains. That gives us time to brace up against the danger. We can take counter-measures like vacating people along the banks. Kerala rivers don’t give us that leisure; they bloat up in just half an hour. So, the state should have been more careful in dam management.

Even after the peak monsoon month of July, you have August and September during which Kerala must expect rains. Even October can be a wet month. So, we must have the feeling that rains can revisit the state again this monsoon and swell up its dams. Water should be let out anticipating such possibilities. The 2006 floods in Surat (by the Tapti river) and the deluge Bihar (lined by the Ganga) experiences almost annually were/are results of water mismanagement. The habit is to wait till the dam gets full. Then when it continues to rain, there is no other go but to lift the sluice gates. That is exactly what happened in Surat: waiting for the dam to fill to capacity, and then open the dams in one go.

Was there any lack of coordination?

Don't take it easy! Rain can fill up Kerala dams again soon, warns expert
In the four days between August 14 and 17, Idukki and Kakki dams received more than double the normal rainfall.

We, Indians, have a problem: it is not the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) that warns about floods. That is with the CWC. As per the government, the authority in India till the rain falls on earth is the IMD. Once that happens, the responsibility (of managing the waters) is of others. We give data to the CWC on a daily basis.

The IMD makes weather prediction. You can intimate it on an individual basis. It’s the responsibility of dam managers to follow weather predictions and grasp them. They should learn from IMD if rains are being expected the next day and, if yes, how much. Kerala has a Disaster Management Authority (DMA). It should have taken measures after consulting the IMD. Our predictions typically reach the DMA. This time, even before the rains became menacing from August 14, we even informed the state chief secretary — over phone, to his Thiruvananthapuram office.

It was already clear the rain was heavy. We issued a special bulletin. The IMD did what it could, but that didn’t do any good. Because none followed it up. Now, it’s all over. So there is no point in continuing to accuse any.

(To be continued)

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