Thiruvananthapuram: The health department has warned that the spread of COVID-19 in Kerala will intensify again.
The number of daily COVID-19 cases could touch 9,000 by January 15 and the number of patients under treatment may be as high as 90,000. Also the death rate is likely to rise to 0.5, according to a report presented by Health Secretary Dr Rajan Khobragade at a review meeting chaired by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.
According to the report, the greater interaction and engagement that was seen among the public in connection with the local elections and the reopening of schools and colleges will result in an increase in the number of COVID cases.
At present, the death rate in Kerala is 0.4 per cent and an average of 65,000 people are under treatment at any given time.
ICMR’s sero survey again
The third phase of the sero survey by ICMR (Indian Council for Medical Research) has been completed in Kerala. The survey was conducted in Ernakulam, Palakkad and Thrissur districts where a survey was done earlier too.
The positive rate (the percentage of population exposed to the coronavirus) in Kerala was 0.33 per cent in the first phase of the survey conducted in May and 0.8 per cent in the survey conducted in August. The second phase of the state government's sero survey will be held this month.
More antigen testing
The Department of Health has decided to reduce RT-PCR testing and increase the number of antigen tests to detect COVID cases in Kerala.
The department's assessment is that antigen tests are effective in detecting the cases. RT-PCR testing will be limited to those with a high risk of COVID and those who show negative in antigen testing but have symptoms.
The changes in testing guidelines are intended to reduce the workload on health workers.
Department of Health’s density study
Kerala’s Department of Health will conduct a density study to identify and prevent the possibility of a second stage of COVID outbreak. The goal of the study is to find out how many people have the COVID antibodies.
Health Minister K K Shailaja said the study will be supervised by the additional director of the health department and the nodal officer of the PEID (Prevention of Epidemics and Infectious Disease) Cell of the Thiruvananthapuram Medical College.
The study will cover 12,100 people over the age of 18. According to the Department of Health, the test positivity rate is about 20 per cent among health workers with symptoms. It was 10.5 per cent among those without symptoms, 3.2 per cent among those who underwent surgery, and 8.3 per cent among those who came in for direct examination.
