Late January COVID-19 surge in Kerala suddenly loses steam

Late January COVID-19 surge in Kerala suddenly loses steam

The COVID-19 surge witnessed in Kerala during the third week of January, a phenomenon health experts had called a 'nostalgic slip' or a carelessness born out of a widespread desperation to get back to pre-COVID normalcy, seems to have lost its propulsion. Daily numbers and test positivity rate (the number of positives for every 100 tests) have shown a sudden decline.

Between January 18 and 24, after remaining steady for nearly two months, there was a significant increase in both daily cases and the TPR in all the 14 districts in Kerala, a uniform surge across the state that suggested a second explosion in COVID-19 cases after the first one in last October.

On January 24, Kerala also recorded a TPR 12.8 per cent, the highest in one-and-a-half months. Districts like Kottayam, Ernakulam, Wayanad and Pathanamthitta witnessed a blood-curdling rise in the TPR. In Kottayam, for instance, it jumped from 10.5 per cent to 14.1 per cent in less than a week. In Wayanad, the TPR bounced from 12 per cent to 14.8 per cent.

Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan had to warn people that things were going out of control. A 'Back to Basics' hand-washing, mask-wearing and social distancing plan were imposed.

Possibly as a consequence, the days right after (from January 25 to 31) has seen a dramatic turnaround. The TPR had either fallen or remained steady in nine districts. Kottayam, Wayanad and Pathanamthitta, which saw a TPR leap during the Jan 18-24 stretch, witnessed a marked lowering.

Late January COVID-19 surge in Kerala suddenly loses steam
Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan arrives at an official event in Ernakulam. Photo: Josekutty Panackal

Kottayam's fell from 14.1 to 13.3 per cent. Pathanamthitta found its TPR sliding from 13.7 per cent to 12.8 per cent. Wayanad's TPR fall was more dramatic than its rise last week. From 14.8 per cent it fell to 10.9 per cent, lower than even the Jan 11-17 stretch.

The number of tests did not see any major change but still absolute numbers fell. Cases took a nosedive in 10 districts. Four districts, however, saw an increase: Alappuzha (8.7 per cent), Kasaragod (4.8 per cent), Kozhikode (2.3 per cent), Kollam (1.1 per cent). But in Wayanad and Kottayam, the new cases decreased by 35.8 per cent and 19.8 per cent respectively.

If there were 42,430 cases in the Jan 18-24 stretch, it fell to 38,900 in the Jan 25-31 stretch, a decrease of 8.3 per cent. However, this is higher than the number of new cases in the Jan 11-17 stretch.

The growth in infection rate has also seen a drop. From a high of 0.79 per cent in January 23, it fell to 0.37 on February 1.

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