On the last day of the campaign, the ruling Left Democratic Front and the opposition United Democratic Front have consolidated their positions. Their attempts to sway the swing constituencies in their favour will greatly be affected by the presence of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. Here is a status report from the districts.
Kasaragod
The UDF faces stiff challenge from the NDA in Manjeswaram, which the BJP lost by just 89 votes in 2016. The UDF has made significant inroads in the LDF stronghold of Uduma. The Muslim League has ensured its victory in Kasaragod, the UDF estimates. The UDF has put up a strong fight against the LDF in the red bastions of Kanhangad and Trikaripur.
The UDF, however, has to sway a large chunk of votes in each constituency to turn the tables in the district. If the coalition manages to retain the voting pattern of the Lok Sabha election of 2019, they could manage to win four assembly segments in the constituency. If the voting pattern of the local body elections stayed, the LDF will walk away with three segments.
Probability: The LDF stands to gain three seats and the UDF two.
Kannur
The LDF had swept eight of the 11 assembly seats in the district in 2016, but the UDF seemed to have closed the gap in many of the constituencies in the last phase of the campaign. The UDF is confident of winning four seats and possibly wresting a fifth seat. Yet the LDF has doubts about its chances in the red bastion.
Thalassery is a particularly difficult nut to crack since the BJP candidate’s nomination paper was rejected. Who will the NDA votes go to? Azheekode is heading for a photo finish pretty much like last time when the UDF managed to win it. BJP’s ability to eat into each front’s vote bases may be decisive. Chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan in Dharmadom and health minister K K Shailaja in Mattannur may be in a race to secure the largest majority.
Probability: The LDF has an advantage in six seats and the UDF in four. One seat defies all prediction.
Wayanad
The district has a reputation as a UDF stronghold, but all three seats are witnessing close contests. The LDF seemed to have an upper hand in the first phase of the campaign but Rahul Gandhi MP’s road show has energised the UDF. The Congress vice president’s campaign could be a deciding factor in two constituencies.
The Congress has headwinds in the district. The party could not fully address the factional feuds and parochialism in the organisation. The BJP could play spoilsport if it does not tap its real vote potential in the district. The NDA expects Union home minister Amit Shah’s campaign to translate into votes in Sulthan Bathery.
Probability: Both the LDF and the UDF have claimed to be leading in one seat each. The third seat is too close to call.
Kozhikode
The district usually allies with the LDF in the assembly elections, but most of the seats have strong challengers this time. The LDF has an upper hand though. Kozhikode North is witnessing a three-cornered contest. Rahul Gandhi’s road show in the city on Sunday, the third visit to the district in this election season, could consolidate votes, the UDF expects.
RMP candidate K K Rema's presence in Vatakara has influenced the politics of the nearby constituencies.
Probability: The LDF may carry four seats and the UDF two. Swing votes will decide the prospects in seven seats.
Malappuram
The LDF faces stiff challenges in four sitting seats, including Tavanur, where minister K T Jaleel is contesting from. The LDF has made the situation tough for the UDF in Perinthalmanna and Mankada, two of the 12 sitting seats held by the opposition front.
The BJP contests in 14 seats and ally Bharat Dharma Jana Sena in two seats.
Probability: The UDF has an advantage in 14 seats, while the LDF hopes to win at least four.
Palakkad
The LDF has nine MLAs in the district, but not all of those seats are secure this time. The ruling front may retain its upper hand in the district even if it is dealt with surprises in its strongholds. The UDF is facing stiff contests in its sitting seats of Palakkad and Trithala even as it improved its positions in LDF sitting seats of Pattambi, Ottappalam and Nenmara.
Probability: The LDF may win six seats and the UDF four. Two seats are too hazy for any indicative forecast.
Thrissur
The UDF stands to gain in the district where it lost all seats but one in the previous assembly election. The Congress and its allies have made visible advances in five seats. The BJP-led alliance has put up a good show in two seats. The BJP expects to win a seat from the district.
The Congress game plan hinges on the nine rookie candidates it has presented in the district.
Probability: The LDF may win seven seats and the UDF four. They are neck and neck in two seats, while the NDA expects to win one seat.
Ernakulam
The UDF may retain its dominance in the district. The Congress and allies draw inspiration from favourable political winds and a charged campaign by Rahul Gandhi. In Kunnathunadu, new entrant Twenty20 may influence voters.
The votes gathered by the NDA may be crucial in constituencies such as Tripunithura.
Probability: The UDF may win seven seats and the LDF in five. Three seats have stiff contests.
Idukki
The LDF had expected to make inroads in the district with the entry of new ally Kerala Congress (M) but the UDF has rebounded in the campaign scene, thanks to Rahul Gandhi’s campaign in four places in the district.
NDA candidates may be decisive in any outcome depending on the number of voters they gather in Idukki and Devikulam constituencies. One of the key issues in this election is a demand for the amendment to the land rules.
Probability: The UDF may win two seats and the LDF one seat. They are neck and neck in two seats.
Pathanamthitta
The district is entirely represented by the LDF in the present Kerala legislative assembly. The UDF and the LDF is slugging it out in the district this time. The UDF may improve its tally from 2016.
The BJP does not seem to have risen to the position of a challenger in Aranmula, but state president K Surendran has caused a three-cornered contest in Konni.
Probability: The LDF and the UDF may win two seats each, leaving a suspenseful silence in the fifth district.
Kottayam
The district has always remained a UDF stronghold but the shift of the Kerala Congress (M) to the LDF camp may change the equations. A majority of the seats are too close to call, including Pala. Poonjar and Kanjirappally have unpredictable three-cornered contests.
The Kerala Congress factions take on each other directly in Kaduthuruthi and Changanassery.
Probability: The LDF and the UDF have clear leads in two seats each. They are yet to claim a lead in five seats.
Alappuzha
The absence of LDF ministers T M Thomas Isaac, G Sudhakaran and P Thilothaman continues to be a talking point in the district. Even the most ardent LDF supporter is not confident of repeating the impressive win of 2016. The ruling front faces headwinds in the Sabarimala issue and the controversy related to a deep-sea trawling contract.
Probability: The LDF and the UDF have clear leads in three seats each. Three seats remain hazy.
Kollam
The LDF may not sweep the district like last time. The UDF may win back four of the 11 seats and put up a strong challenge in at least three seats. One constituency is facing a three-cornered contest.
The five coastal constituencies in the district may be affected by the controversy related to a deep-sea trawling contract. The BJP is contesting from nine constituencies. The party is focused on Chathannur, where it came second last time.
Probability: Both the LDF and the UDF bet on four seats each and refrain from claiming a lead in three seats.
Thiruvananthapuram
The LDF was expected to continue its home run in the district but the UDF seemed to have closed the gap in the last few days of the campaign in at least half the seats. The BJP has ensured a three-cornered contest in Nemom, Kazhakkoottam and Kattakkada.
The Congress prospects were brightened by the presence of eight new candidates. The votes gathered by the BJP will be decisive in any outcomes in nine seats. Minority voters hold key to the election.
Probability: The LDF has an upper hand in five seats, while the UDF hopes to win four seats. Five seats are challenging for any psephologist.
