Going by the recent political developments in Kerala, February, the shortest month of the year, could witness some decisive realignment of State politics and change in political equations.
The judgement on the future of the resurrected SNC-Lavalin case will be pronounced by February-end. The question whether CPM politburo member Pinarayi Vijayan will be punished or get a clean chit is not that important. The party will be caught in dilemma over the leadership for sure. Whether Pinarayi will be able to lead the party, and thereby the LDF, in the Assembly elections if the High Court quashes the CBI Court’s verdict and order trial proceedings, is the million-dollar question.
It will not be easy for the CPM to nominate a chargesheeted person to contest elections or project him as the chief ministerial candidate. There is also a mystery in the silence maintained by Opposition Leader V. S. Achuthanandan, which could be broken at any time. However, if the High Court upholds the CBI Court’s ruling, it will definitely energise Pinarayi as well as the CPM rank and file ahead of the assembly polls.
K. M. Mani too is looking forward to February. With the Special Court posting the hearing on the Vigilance closure report in the bar licence renewal bribery case on February 16, it has become clear that Mani will not be able to present his 14th Budget. The judicial delay has also poured cold water on the mutual agreement between the Congress and the Kerala Congress (M) to bring Mani back to the Cabinet before the elections as well.
The Election Commission will declare the Assembly poll schedule in the first week of March. A delay in disposing of the case or an unfavourable verdict will put Mani as well as the UDF in deep trouble. The CPM has already indicated that the Kerala Congress would not be “untouchable”, if Mani does not contest elections.
Although a section of UDF leaders believes that the reinstatement of Mani would dent the front’s image., the Chief Minister is focusing on measures to retain the Kerala Congress in the UDF camp by allying the party’s apprehensions ahead of the assembly polls.
If the State council meeting of the Janata Dal (U) was held today as planned, the attention of the State’s political landscape would have shifted to Kozhikode. The meeting was postponed to February 13 on account of the warning issued by Agriculture Minister K. P. Mohanan that if the party leadership took a hasty decision to leave the UDF, it would result in another split in the party. The party conceded his demand to reschedule the meeting the next day after the State Budget.
Speculations were rife after out of the 14 district units of the party, 12 units, expect Kannur and Kozhikode, voted in favour of leaving the front and joining the LDF. Notably, the UDF has offered the party one of the Rajya Sabha seats from the State which will fall vacant soon. A. K. Antony, T. N. Seema and K. N. Balagopal are among the Rajya Sabha members whose term will expire on April 2. Notification for the Rajya Sabha elections is expected to be issued by February-end.
The function where Pinarayi Vijayan released a book authored by Veerendrakumar and published by the CPM-backed Chintha Publishers has given a clear indication of the new-found bonhomie between the two parties. The JD (U) meeting on February 13 gains importance in such a circumstance.
February may witness the unfolding of the biggest suspense which has been haunting the UDF government for over two years as well. The judicial commission probing the solar scam is likely to submit its report in February.
The term of the Commission, originally appointed in October 2013 for a six-month tenure, was extended several times ever since. The latest deadline set is April 27 and another extension is most unlikely. As it would be seen as an inappropriate action to submit the report during the election time, the final report is expected to be filed much ahead of the extended time. Completing all the procedures and preparing final report on multi-crore solar scam and associated financial dealing would be a herculean task to the commission. Today’s meeting in Kochi will give clear indications on the submission of the report.
Political outfits taking out rallies during election time have always claimed that there would be major political changes when their ‘yatras’ cross the finishing point. The State-wide rallies led by V. M. Sudheeran, Kummanam Rajasekharan and Pinarayi Vijayan will culminate in Thiruvananthapuram on February 9, 10 and 14 respectively.
Both the Lavalin case and the Kathiroor Manoj murder case are being investigated by the CBI. There are also calls to hand over the bar bribery case to the same agency. So one can read more into the BJP state units’s move to bring Home Minister Rajnath Singh as the chief guest at culmination of the yatra captained by Kummanam.