Elections 2019 | Can the Cong lord over Purvanchal with Priyanka 'look and feel'?

An effort to revive the Congress in Uttar Pradesh was the predominant narrative behind Priyanka Gandhi's grand political foray into the state.

Congress supporters and workers celebrated her appointment as party general secretary for eastern Uttar Pradesh with fanfare on February 11 with a grand roadshow when she arrived.

It seemed as if nothing could now stop the revival of the Grand Old Party in the state, which sends the maximum number of lawmakers to the Lok Sabha – 80.

But now, the euphoria is on the wane.

Priyanka stayed back in Lucknow for a couple of days. On February 14, after the Pulwama terror strike which killed 40 jawans, she cancelled a scheduled press conference and returned to New Delhi.

She has not returned since then.

The UP Congress Committee (UPCC) office, which witnessed hectic activity after her arrival and during her stay, now resembles the quiet and deserted mansion it had been for years.

Active Role

Even without a formal post, Priyanka had never been out of politics.

She had campaigned actively in the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections in Amethi and Rae Bareli many times.

She also played an active role in stitching the Congress-SP alliance in 2017 and in the selection of chief ministers in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh after last year's assembly poll win.

Priyanka had a role in selection of candidates in many elections.

While her formal entry into Congress was not unexpected, what came as a surprise of sorts was the choice of the post.

Many leaders in Congress and other parties felt that the being nominated a functionary for about half of UP was too small a responsibility for a person of her stature.

The Congress has placed 41 Lok Sabha constituencies in UP under the charge of Priyanka, while Jyotiraditya Scindia was assigned the rest 39 as the AICC general secretary in charge of western UP.

Priyanka is to manage a host of key constituencies including Amethi, Rae Bareli, Varanasi, Gorakhpur, Allahabad, Phulpur and Lucknow.

Scindia will oversee Saharanpur, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Rampur, Ghaziabad, Mathura, Pilibhit, Kanpur and Farrukhabad seats among others.

While Amethi and Rae Bareli are represented in Lok Sabha by Rahul and Sonia Gandhi, respectively, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the MP from Varanasi and Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh represents Lucknow. Gorakhpur and Phulpur had gone to the BJP in the 2014 election, but in the bye-elections held in March 2018, Samajwadi Party (SP) candidates supported by the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) recorded easy wins in both seats.

The SP and the BSP kept the Congress out of their unofficial alliance, which has now been formalised for the upcoming polls.

The only concession the SP and the BSP have made to the Congress is the announcement that they will not put up any candidate in Amethi and Rae Bareli.

Why 'Purvanchal'

There are many reasons for choosing eastern UP for Priyanka to begin her practical political innings.

This region, commonly known as ‘Purvanchal’ ('purva' means 'east'), comprises 24 districts east of Lucknow up to the border with Bihar.

Caste divide runs very deep in this region, with Brahmins, Thakurs (Kshatriya) and OBCs holding sway in their pocket boroughs.

The electorate of eastern UP are also known for their rebellious nature and shifting political loyalties.

Over the years, the SP, BSP and BJP have fared well in Lok Sabha and Assembly elections there.

The Congress had a commendable outing in eastern UP in the 2009 Lok Sabha election, winning 12 seats from this region out of its tally of 21 in UP.

In the 2004 general election, when it had won nine seats in the state, only four came from eastern UP and the rest was from western part.

The 2014 polls saw a one-sided result with the BJP and its ally Apna Dal winning 73 seats in UP, while the SP won 5 and the Congress only two – Rae Bareli and Amethi.

Party strategists believe that if Priyanka tours eastern UP districts extensively, she would be able to influence a major chunk of the electorate, especially women and the youth.

Her personal charisma and resemblance to her grandmother and former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi are factors which could sway voters.

The party think tank is of the view that with her presence, the Congress may well emerge as an option for voters disgruntled with the BJP, but having reservations about the SP-BSP combine.

Opportunities and challenges

After arriving in Lucknow on February 11, Priyanka held several meetings with UP Congress leaders and district level workers.

The idea was to get a feel of the ground realities and to prepare the strategy for finalising party candidates and campaign.

On February 13, the Congress announced an alliance with the little-known Keshav Dev Maurya's Mahan Dal, which claims support of some backward classes in a few pockets in central and western UP.

A proposed electoral understanding with Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party (Lohia) led by Shivpal Singh Yadav has not come through till date.

However, the failure of the party strategists to ensure her appearance more frequently in the state – particularly eastern UP – and also the failure of UPCC leaders to create and maintain a favourable momentum have dampened the initial enthusiasm.

Besides Priyanka and Rahul, the Congress lacks star campaigners in UP. The UPCC remains in a dormant state.

With a weak organisational structure, state-level leaders grossly out of touch with the grassroots and three major parties itching to give it a beating, the Congress desperately needs a booster shot in the state.

A dynamic leadership, aggressive campaigning and organisational backing would be required for the party to make a noticeable impact in the next general election.

That Priyanka alone is envisaged to provide all these – and that too on the strength of her resemblance with Indira Gandhi – is a tall order.

In this scenario, the impact of her appointment in the party could be limited to selecting the appropriate candidates and quelling dissent.

In any case for the Congress, anything beyond two seats, its present tally, is a gain.

Incidentally, soon after announcing Priyanka’s appointment, the Congress party clarified that she would not be confined to eastern UP alone but would also tour Gujarat, Karnataka and Maharashtra for election campaign.

It is anybody’s guess whether this was a ploy to shield her from the blame for any probable backlash for the party in eastern UP.

Priyanka's appointment and the reported behind-the-scene work in tandem with Congress chieftains in UP could help in significant political catches like those of Dalit leader Savitri Bai Phule and former SP parliamentarian Rakesh Sachan who joined the Congress on March 2.

Phule, who had represented the Bahraich seat on a BJP ticket after winning in 2014, had quit the party late last year.

Only the collective conscience of the electorate will decide if these developments portend a gradual uptick in the Congress' fortunes in a state, where it ruled for decades but withered away in the aftermath of Mandal and Masjid politics.