'Pravasi' votes too may count in a close fight as in Vadakara

Kozhikode: The large number of Non-Resident Keralites (NRKs) hailing from parts of the Vadakara constituency in the state would be crucial during the vote count for the Lok Sabha election. According to the latest statistics, there are 31,446 NRKs from Vadakara constituency alone, which comes to around 36 per cent of the total 87,648 eligible overseas voters from Kerala.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the winner from Vadakara -- Mullappally Ramachandran -- scraped through with a margin of 3,306 votes, and this time also the constituency witnesses an intense fight between Congress' Muraleedharan and CPM's Kannur former district secretary P Jayarajan and every vote may count.

After Vadakara, the highest number of 'pravasi' voters are in the Ponnani Lok Sabha constituency: 11,027.

A lot of NRKs enrolled their names in the voters' list ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, hoping that they would be able to vote even from abroad. (In February, the Election Commission of India had clarified that NRI voters cannot cast votes online or make use of postal ballots, but have to be present in person at the pooling booth. An NRI, who holds an Indian passport, can vote only in his or her hometown after registering as an overseas voter by filling up the Form 6A.)

Rallying overseas voters

Meanwhile, organised efforts are on to bring in as many overseas voters as Kerala goes to the polls on April 23.

Since the air fare has rose significantly of late, the individual bookings for Kerala trip are likely to reduce this time. However, political parties are hopeful that they would be able to bring in the maximum number of voters through chartered flights.

Though the number of NRKs are in millions, in the absence of a collective platform, even eligible voters among them are not keen to vote without any organised drive to make them vote. (EC data shows only 10,000 to 12,000 overseas voters have voted in Indian polls as few are willing to travel from abroad just to vote.) Considering the large number of Malayalis in the Middle East and their links to north Kerala, it can be safely assumed the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) stands to gain if overseas electors from Kerala cast their franchise.

IUML office-bearers believe that their cultural organisations in the Gulf Cooperation Council states would be able to bring Keralites there to cast votes.

Malabar Development Forum (MDF), an NGO that successfully campaigned for bringing the bodies of the NRIs free of cost, believes that the occasional visits of Indian political leaders to their countries of residence, create an impact among the NRIs. Other than the social media and newspapers, the community gatherings and treatment meted out to them in a foreign country will have an impact on their psyche.

Rise in air fare a dampener

Overseas Keralites mostly plan their trips after checking air fares which often shoot up during vacations in India and abroad. This time a totally unexpected event -- the grounding of Boeing 737 Max aircraft -- has resulted in a spurt in air charge.

“With the grounding of Boeing 737 Max aircraft globally in the wake of the Ethiopian Airlines tragedy on March 10 and the subsequent rise in air fare it is unlikely that all the NRIs who wanted to vote in this election would be able to arrive here. More than 80% of the passengers from the Gulf who are from north Kerala return here on such flights. Flight charges have increased 50 to 70%,” says KM Basheer, national president of the MDF.

According to IUML state general secretary KPA Majeed, the current hike in air fare will not have much of an impact on the voting this time, as chartered flights would be taking the NRIs home for election.

“The fare hike due to the ban on the 737 Max aircraft is unlikely to affect the 'pravasi' votes as they are not coming individually. The chartered flights would be taking them as planned before, and they would be landing and returning as scheduled earlier,” he states.

The other Gulf returnees

While the political parties have arranged chartered flights to bring and send back voters from the Gulf before and after the election, the impact of the Gulf returnees is on a different level, Basheer adds, referring to people returning after losing jobs in the Gulf.

“When a particular party brings its voters to cast their vote and send them back, the process is mechanical. However, when an expatriate, after a long stay in a foreign country, develops a particular ideology and returns home and practises it and convinces his family members also to adhere to it, it creates a long-time impact. In that case, the Gulf exodus and the changed mentality of the returnees will have huge impact on the election,” Basheer added.

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