Bhopal: In Madhya Pradesh, signals from ground zero won’t be music to ears for those expecting a good show this general election from the Congress. Exit polls conducted by major news channels like NDTV, Aaj Tak and Times Now in association with other agencies have predicted a 2014 repeat performance by the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections this time also.
None of the major channels gave Congress more than 5 out of 29 Lok Sabha seats in Madhya Pradesh, a number which many find surprising as the Congress returned to power in the state winning assembly elections barely six months ago, ending a drought of 15 years. In 2014 elections, the Congress could manage to win only two seats in the state.
Hoping wilting of lotus in many areas of the state, ruling Congress party leaders, however, were quick to reject what many, particularly those disposed towards the saffron, say the Congress failed to read the mood of the electorate. Congress leaders dub exit poll, trends suggesting the party won’t be able to cross even double-digit a motivated and deliberate ploy on part of the BJP. They say suggested numbers favouring BJP landslide victory are exaggerated and unrealistic.
Whatever will be the outcome on May 23, exit polls forced observers to have a re-look over the possible reasons which may upset Congress calculation.
A senior citizen and committed Congress worker, who is associated with the party for more than 45 years in Bundelkhand region, tries to explain the situation, “There is no organization of the Congress at the grassroots level. When I was a young man, Sewa Dal and NSUI were quite active in rural areas. There was a strong connect with farmers and almost all sections of the society. Not any more.”
He draws attention to the loan waiver scheme. His lament: despite good intentions, the party could not dispel wrong notions among all farmers about the benefit of the scheme. He says in his area, there were some farmers who could not get the waiver due to delay on part of nationalized banks to disburse the loan and what was more galling for the farmer was the fact that they were instead served notice. “Farmers felt humiliated. It sent out the wrong message among them,” he said.
An engineer from the Mahakoshal region feels subsidy on housing, Ujjawala scheme to lower class and the surgical strike by India helped the BJP change the narrative.
He says, “The surgical strike played a major role in polarizing voters. The BJP’s harping on surgical strike before it stepped up campaigning appears to have served a major purpose: The BJP managed to give an impression that it is the only party capable of giving a befitting reply to Pakistan.”
Reservation to students belonging to upper caste coming from an economically weaker section also strengthened the impression that the BJP is taking better care of their interests, he said.
Congress leader and party spokesman JP Dhanopia say, “Exit poll projections are part of a conspiracy. It is not an exit poll, but a paid poll.” Another party leader Manak Agrawal said, “It is too early to say a victory for the BJP”. He said, “In 1998, exit polls were predicting victory for the BJP. When results came out the Congress returned to power for the second time in a row.”
But BJP leaders feel exit poll projections are more or less on predictable lines. Rajneesh Agrawal says, “Exit poll is indicating the party will better its performance from the existing number.”
In 2014, Congress could manage to win only two Lok Sabha seats – Chhindwara by Kamal Nath and Guna seat by Jyotiraditya Scindia. Later, in my poll, Congress won one more seat taking the tally to three.
From Chhindwara seat, chief minister’s son Nakul Nath is contesting poll for the first time. Barring once, chief minister Kamal Nath represented the seat for almost four decades.
