Thiruvananthapuram: Based on the internal evaluation of the party, the CPM claims that the LDF would get not less than 80 seats under any circumstances.
The state leadership of the CPM reached this estimate based on the reports submitted by the district secretariats. The available secretariat meeting held the other day had evaluated the details submitted by the district leadership.
The state secretariat of the CPM has not held a meeting yet.
According to CPM's estimates, the BJP might not get even a single seat this time. However, the party may come second in some seats. In such places the UDF will be pushed to the third spot.
In Kochi, the apolitical outfit Twenty20, is likely to open its account. They have a high chance of winning Kunnathunadu. The Ernakulam district report claimed that in the final phase the fight was between the LDF and the Twenty20.
The CPM believes that in Poonjar P C George may not be able to stun all political parties this time like he did in 2016 assembly polls. The party is of the opinion that George might end up in third position this time.
Gain in Kottayam
The CPM beleives that LDF would get some more seats in Kottayam district following the entry of Jose K Mani. The CPM feels that Kottayam and Puthupally will go to UDF kitty from Kottayam district.
In Pala Jose K Mani will win with a margin even bigger than what was secured by Mani C Kapan when he contested as LDF candidate in the bypoll. The CPM is of the view that UDF's expectation to encash heavily on the deep sea trawling MoU controversy is nothing but wishful thinking.
Even Thrissur where the UDF is expected to gain because of the reported opposition of Syro Malabar Church to LDF, is unlikely to happen. In Thiruvananthapuram the CPM expects to get 10 seats.
The party might lose some of its sitting seats. Even CPI might face losses. However, the CPM leadership believes that with some new seats the LDF would secure a comfortable majority.
Sabarimala issue didn't work
Even though Sabarimala issue was raised prominently during the campaign and even on the polling day, it could not turn into an emotional issue as was seen during the Lok Sabha polls. The situation was almost like during the local bodies poll.
The CPM says that in normal course there is a strong feeling against the incumbent government during assembly polls, but this time the situation was in favour for a repeat.