COVID-19: Slight dip in Kerala's TPR, active case load may decrease to 3.4 lakh by month-end

COVID-19: Slight dip in state's TPR, active case load may decrease to 3.4 lakh by month-end
Health staff shifting COVID patients. File photo

Thiruvananthapuram: The State's COVID-19 graph is showing a slight dip in novel coronavirus positive cases, with the test positivity rate decreasing to 25.61 per cent from 29.75 per cent over the past five days.

The R number - or the reproduction rate - has come down to 1.1. The R value rates any disease's ability to spread, with R being the average number of people who contract the virus from one infected person.

Additionally, recoveries (34,296) outnumbered fresh cases (29,704) in the State on Sunday. The active case pool that had been on an upswing, too, dipped to 4,40,652 patients on Sunday, from Saturday's 4,45,334.

According to the State's latest projected estimate, the active case load will decrease to 4 lakh by May 25, and dip further to 3.4 lakh by May 30.

The virus's rate of spread has decreased in districts like Kozhikode, which witnessed a huge surge recently. The severe spread of SARS-CoV-2, however, will continue in southern districts of Thiruvananthapuram and Kollam till the month-end.

According to earlier estimates, Kerala was to report the highest number of new COVID-19 cases on Sunday. The statistics released on Sunday need not be accurate since testing for the virus has come down due to the lockdown.

It is now estimated that Thiruvananthapuram may witness fresh COVID-19 cases increasing till May 30. Kottayam and Kollam, too, are likely to report more numbers till May 20 and May 26, respectively.

In the coming days, Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Idukki and Palakkad may face a shortage of ICU beds due to an increase in COVID-19 patients. Kollam may run out of beds with oxygen supply, while Thiruvananthapuram may experience inadequate space in its second-line COVID treatment centres.

Meanwhile, the government is apprehensive about its projection going wrong since the torrential rains and storm surge have forced several people to shift to relief camps in the State.

The second phase of the lockdown began in Kerala by Sunday midnight. Four districts have been placed under triple lockdown.

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