Severe second wave of COVID-19 cases in India soon: Studies

New Delhi: India now has over three lakh cases of COVID-19, with the latest 1 lakh cases added in just 12 days, but the country will not be touching the peak of the outbreak anytime soon, studies have indicated. They have warned of a more severe and dangerous second wave.

Some studies have said the situation is going to get worse in July and August, with many states seeing a spurt at different times. The Karnataka government, for instance, expects a rapid spread of the disease after August 15.

The cases are likely to peak in July or August, according to Dr SP Byotra, the vice-chairman of Sir Ganga Ram Hospital. He was echoing what Dr Randeep Guleria, an AIIMS doctor and a member of the national task force to fight COVID, had said. Dr Guleria had also said that there are no signs of the spread of the disease decreasing.

Foreign researchers have said that the second wave will start in August.

Even more startling is NITI Aayog’s estimate that by mid-August over 2.74 crore people will be affected by COVID.

Confirmed cases in India have crossed 3,09,000, with Maharashtra reporting over 1 lakh cases. Tamil Nadu is the second worst-affected state with over 40,000 cases and Delhi the third, with about 35,000 cases.

Globally, over 77 lakh cases have been confirmed. The USA is the worst hit with over 21 lakh cases, followed by Brazil with over 8 lakh cases. Russia comes next with over 5 lakh cases. India ranks fourth.

What is behind the increase

Experts say cases are bound to rise as the country eases the lockdown. Also, the return of expatriates in huge numbers should be a cause for worry, they said. They also point out that the number of cases will only go up as testing increases.

Moreover, they say, the spread of the virus is now in geometric progression — the first 1 lakh cases were reported in 100 days; it took 14 days for the cases to go up from 1 lakh to 2 lakh, and the next 1 lakh cases were reported in just 12 days.