Will Trump turn to Cuba after Iran operations?

A former Cuban diplomat, who had served with me years ago in Washington, Vienna, and Slovenia, was in Thiruvananthapuram recently, and I had the opportunity to talk to him at length. I expected him to be preoccupied with the fear of the long arms of President Trump reaching out to Cuba to do what the US had failed to do for a long time -- to bring in regime change and to transform it into a democracy. Even the end of the Cold War and the fall of the Soviet Union had not altered the David-and-Goliath confrontation between the mighty United States and tiny Cuba. 

With the “Donroe Doctrine” in place, President Trump has declared that Cuba is “running on fumes” and floated the idea of a “friendly takeover” of Cuba, warning that the alternative was a Venezuela-like takeover of the Caribbean island. 

Since the 1959 revolution spearheaded by Fidel Castro, Cuba had aligned itself with the Soviet Union and embarked upon a plan to export its revolution not only to the rest of Latin America, but also to distant Africa.

In 1962, the US had imposed a near-total embargo that remains at the core of the relationship between the two countries. Even the passion of many Americans for Cuban cigars, reputed to be rolled on the thighs of the Cuban women, and the Cuban rum had to be satisfied with the smuggling of these goodies by the tourists who had to travel through neighbouring countries such as Mexico.

This period also saw the failed Bay of Pigs invasion (1961) and the Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), which brought the world to the brink of nuclear war. The refusal of the Soviet Union to remove its missiles from Cuba ignited a nuclear stand-off, which was withdrawn only at the last moment when the two sides realised that the use of nuclear weapons would lead to a Third World War. Several assassination attempts were made on Fidel Castro, but he finally passed away peacefully in his bed. Many Cuban refugees perished at sea as they tried to reach the United States. A sizeable community of Cuban refugees in the United States influences public opinion against Cuba today.

In a historic shift, President Barack Obama and Raúl Castro restored diplomatic ties, travel restrictions were removed, and there was a surge in US tourism and private business growth in Cuba. The first Trump Administration reversed the thaw in the relations between the two countries, citing human rights abuses and Cuba’s support for the Maduro regime in Venezuela.

The second Trump Administration has adopted a policy of active economic strangulation, specifically targeting the island’s energy security. Moreover, the US has started demanding a transition to multiparty democracy, which Cuba sees as an infringement of national sovereignty. The US is also demanding compensation for billions of assets transferred to Cuba during the 1959 revolution.

Cuba continues to defy the US even in the face of a virtual blockade, which has created serious disruption of lifestyle. After the ouster of Maduro, there are clear indications that a similar action will be taken in a final blow to Cuba.

Coming back to my conversation with the Cuban diplomat, he appeared unconcerned about the gathering storm in his country. Years of successful resistance to the US have given Cuba a certain resilience and he reflected some confidence that the country would be able to survive the present onslaught by Trump. But it remains to be seen what the consequences will be if Trump turns to Cuba after his Iran operations.

India, particularly Kerala, has a certain warmth towards Cuba and the economic cooperation continues between the two countries. The University of Kerala has a fairly elaborate scheme for joint studies and the exchange of scholars as part of the remaining vestiges of a friendship that flourished during the era of non-alignment. India, Cuba, Yugoslavia and Algeria were known as the “Gang of Four”, which were the guardians of the integrity and unity of the movement.