Does BRIC(K)S have enough mortar to stick together?

By all accounts, the eighteenth BRICS summit in New Delhi on September 12 and 13 has been a success. The attendance was impressive as most of the 11 members and 10 partner countries were represented at the highest level.

President Ji was undecided for some time, but a meeting between the Special Representatives of India and China just ahead of the summit may have reassured Ji that there would be no embarrassing moment for him. But his sudden departure without attending the final banquet caused suspicion that his illness may have been diplomatic. But his bilateral meeting with Modi was substantial and readouts from both sides gave indications of rapprochement, if not a reset of bilateral relations between India and China. But the Indian readout did not repeat the expression that China and India were not rivals, but partners, stated by China.

There was expectation that improvement in bilateral relations with China may be the best outcome of the summit, but there was no evidence of it when the summit ended. But one silver lining was the statement that “the two sides should stay committed to advancing bilateral relations and resolving the boundary question, and seek parallel, mutually reinforcing progress, and maintain peace and tranquility in the border areas”, bringing back memories of the Rajiv Gandhi and Narasimha Rao days. China had forgotten those commitments in the conversations after the incursions in Ladakh.

China’s main gain at the summit was its smooth entry into the Global South, together with Russia, though neither of them was considered part of the Global South when it was defined at the G 20 summit in Delhi. Even at the time of the G 77 as a grouping of the developing countries, the accepted nomenclature was “G77 and China” indicating that it was still a developing country, but not a part of G 77. But its present status as belonging to the “Voice of the Global South”, which BRICS has become, China may claim the leadership of the Global South.

The Joint Statement, which the Indians pulled out of their hat on the first day of the summit surprised everyone, proving the point that Indian diplomats are clever draftsmen. It was a collection of safe formulations developed over time to make BRICS only “non -west”, but not “anti -west’. The wording of the Joint Statement is so clever that even Donald Trump may not be offended. The world is waiting for his reaction on Truth Social any moment. He may even choose to ignore it as neither he nor his country is named anywhere.

BRICS generally avoided a detailed examination of the wars around the world and generally called for their end as some members of the BRICS were directly involved.

The themes of the conference, resilience, innovation, cooperation and sustainability opened the doors for sixty new initiatives at different stages of development, marking an evolution from political consensus to institutional co-operation. What remains to be done is to create an institutional framework, which will lead to implementation. Much depends on the next Chairman, China which carries the responsibility to promote the four pillars.

The moves for “dedollarisation’, initiated by China was the red rag for the US, but neither India, nor Russia championed it in Delhi. But the existing arrangement for BRICS countries to trade among themselves in their own currencies was reinforced. Even some US payment agencies have already signed up to link up with these arrangements.

The demand for strengthening multilateralism was voiced clearly because of the interest of Brazil and India in reforming the United Nations. Clearly, neither China nor Russia supports expansion of the permanent membership of the Security Council with veto, but they have joined a BRICS consensus for reform of the United Nations. The American offer of six additional permanent members without veto towards the end of the Biden administration had no takers.

One challenge that BRICS will face as it moves to the next summit will be the demand for expanding its membership. Twenty-one countries were in Delhi at fairly high levels and the non-members are likely to apply for membership. It may become necessary to develop some criteria for membership before the next summit. A large membership may affect the organizational structures necessary for the implementation of decisions.

BRICS, which began as a group of the fastest growing developing countries has assumed considerable importance because of weakening of alliances and the ineffectiveness of the UN itself. BRICS may well become an important multilateral body, but the question remains as to whether it will have sufficient mortar to hold it together.