With or without Mullappally, UDF faces uphill task in Vadakara

Kozhikode: The United Democratic Front faces an uphill task in Vadakara Lok Sabha constituency.

Sitting MP Mullappally Ramachandran is reluctant to contest this time, as he has to run the organisational machinery in his role as the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee president.

He has made it clear that he won't be in the fray this time.

“Whoever may be the candidate, I will be 'half the candidate' in Vadakara,” Mullappally had said in Kalpetta during his Janamahayathra. He reiterated this in Kozhikode also.

The UDF's headache is its dwindling margin in the 2014 LS polls. Mullappally's own margin plummeted from 56,186 in 2009 to a mere 3,306 in 2014.

If Mullapally is also not in the fray, that would be akin to giving away the constituency to the CPM, party sources said.

Mullapally can attract personal votes cutting across party lines, but the Congress does not have any other candidate who can sway independent voters.

So there is immense pressure on Mullappally from within the party to contest this time.

The Congress wants to garner as many seats as possible from states where it holds considerable sway and hence an intervention by the party High Command to force the KPCC president to contest cannot be ruled out.

At least that is what party workers in the constituency are hoping for.

Mullapally's reluctance to contest has given way to speculation about probable candidates.

The name of Kerala Students Union (KSU) president K M Abhijit is doing the rounds as the most likely candidate of the Congress.

LDF bastion

The constituency has seven assembly segments - Thalassery, Koothuparamba, Nadapuram, Vadakara, Kuttiady, Koyilandy and Perambra.

Only Kuttiady elected a UDF legislator in 2016 assembly polls – Parakkal Abdulla of the Indian Union Muslim League.

That is a pointer to the clout of the LDF in the constituency.

MP Veerendrakumar's Loktantrik Janata Dal (LJD), which has pockets of influence here, is now with the LDF, which is another worrying factor for the Congress.

The only solace for the UDF would be slain T P Chandrasekharan's RMP. It can hope that the RMP would not contest and all the votes will fall in the UDF kitty.

However, there are other equations that would come into play.

A major chunk of Muslim votes helped A N Shamseer to put up a tough fight in 2014.

If the CPM fields a stronger Muslim candidate here, that would alter the equations.

The CPM leadership is confident about wresting the seat by a margin of 60,000 votes.

CPM Kannur district secretary P Jayarajan's name is doing the rounds as the probable candidate, though there is no official word yet on this count.

The Congress' calculation is that Muslim votes will sway to its camp this time as Congress alone is capable of taking on the BJP at the national level.