In Malappuram Lok Sabha constituency, the supporters of Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) prepare sweets much before election results are declared as victory is a foregone conclusion often. League has won 16 of the 17 Lok Sabha polls here, including the now defunct Manjeri constituency.
The only time it lost was in 2004 when the Left Democratic Front (LDF) swept the polls with 18 seats in state. When the nearby Ponnani constituency, another IUML bastion, poses concern to it over reducing victory margin over the last few polls, Malappuram keeps adding more votes to the winners' tally.
LDF however banks on the changing political scenario in Kerala to claim a surprise victory over the United Democratic Front (UDF) candidate this time . BJP looks to better its vote share this time.
Popular faces
IUML general secretary P K Kunhalikutty will defend League's seat. He had won big here (5.15 lakh votes) in 2017 by-election in his maiden Lok Sabha contest. He has been a seven-time MLA who was a minister in the governments of K Karunakaran, A K Antony and Oommen Chandy.
If a tough fight itself was deemed an achievement by CPI(M), they are aiming for an upset victory this time. Its candidate V P Sanu is a novice compared to Kunhalikkuty. This is the first big contest of the 30-year-old national president of the Students' Federation of India. He is known among youngsters as someone who has led protests in and out of Malappuram and central universities.
Sanu is the son of V K Sakkaria, whom Kunhalikutty beat in 1991 Assembly contest from Kuttippuram. Sakkaria was 27 then and Sanu 2.
BJP's V Unnikrishnan is a former president of the (Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad) ABVP and National Teachers Parishad and has wide connections in the constituency. He contested from the Kottakkal Assembly seat in 2016.
Candidates of PDP (Nisar Methar) and SDPI (P Abdul Majid Faizi) are also in fray.
League's records
All seven Assembly constituencies that are part of the Lok Sabha seat are with League, though the Left has won Perinthalmanna five times and Mankada twice in the past. In the 2014 election, League extended its lead in six assembly seats, though Malappuram saw a slight dip. Local bodies too are held by the UDF, which comprises the IUML too.
The BJP is yet to make an impression that could influence elections.
League leaders Ibrahim Sulaiman Sett won six times and E Ahmed won four times here. T K Hamsa's 2014 win is the LDF's only achievement in Lok Sabha elections.
E Ahmed's 2014 margin of 1,94,739 is a state record. It was an election where the CPM attacked him for repeated candidacy. Kunhalikutty got 1.71 lakh victory margin in the 2017 by-poll held soon after Ahmed's death.
League loved discussing national politics from Sett and Ahmed's time. Though Left has tried to make local issues relevant during polls, topics finally end up being national, secular issues. Congress president Rahul Gandhi's unexpected candidacy from neighbouring Wayanad Lok Sabha seat will swing debates that way this time too.
LDF started campaign attacking Kunhalikutty for missing the election for the vice-president of India and the discussions over the Triple Talaq Bill. League defends these charges by asking what stance Left MPs took on these issues in Parliament.
League banks on Kunhalikutty's interventions on issues concerning minorities in and out of state, his developmental achievements over the years and philanthropy. Kozhikode railway station and airport’s poor state is the main local issue.
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