BJP at 142–208 seats, TMC at 85–205: West Bengal exit polls show split verdict
Exit polls suggest a close West Bengal election. Projections vary, with some predicting a BJP victory and others indicating a strong TMC performance; the Left-Congress alliance is expected to poll poorly.
Exit polls suggest a close West Bengal election. Projections vary, with some predicting a BJP victory and others indicating a strong TMC performance; the Left-Congress alliance is expected to poll poorly.
Exit polls suggest a close West Bengal election. Projections vary, with some predicting a BJP victory and others indicating a strong TMC performance; the Left-Congress alliance is expected to poll poorly.
Exit poll projections for the first phase of the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections suggest a tightly contested and highly polarised race, with some agencies indicating a possible end to the TMC government and others projecting a close finish.
The majority mark in the 294-seat Assembly is 148.
A majority of pollsters, including Praja Poll, P-Marq and Poll Diary, project the BJP crossing the majority mark. Praja Poll gives the most aggressive estimate, placing BJP at 178–208 seats, while TMC is projected at 85–110. Poll Diary estimates BJP at 142–171, TMC at 99–127 and others at 5–9. P-Marq projects BJP at 150–175, TMC at 118–138 and others at 2–6.
In contrast, Janmat Polls and People’s Pulse project a strong performance for the TMC. Janmat Polls estimates TMC at 195–205 seats and BJP at 80–90, while People’s Pulse projects TMC at 177–187 and BJP at 95–110.
Other agencies show mixed outcomes. JVC projects BJP at 138–159 and TMC at 131–152. Matrize places BJP at 146–161 and TMC at 125–140. A few projections also indicate marginal space for Congress and the Left, while others remain in single digits.
The poll of polls averages the data and suggests an almost even split, with BJP at 143 seats, TMC at 142 seats, Congress and Left at 2 seats, and others at 7 seats.
Across projections, most parties are expected to be reduced to single-digit or marginal presence, raising the possibility that smaller “others” could play a limited but potentially decisive role in a closely fought Assembly.
Analysts note that the campaign has ended in a sharply divided mandate forecast, with both major alliances claiming an edge depending on the agency considered. The final outcome will be known when counting takes place on May 4, 2026.