Exit polls 2026: BJP set for big wins in Bengal & Assam, DMK to retain Tamil Nadu, UDF ahead in Kerala

New Delhi: Exit poll projections by Today’s Chanakya indicate a mixed electoral outcome across key states in the 2026 Assembly elections, with a close contest in Kerala and decisive leads in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Assam.

West Bengal: BJP set for dominant win
In West Bengal, the BJP is projected to register a sweeping victory, securing 192 ± 11 seats with a 48% (± 3%) vote share. The Trinamool Congress-led alliance is expected to drop to 100 ± 11 seats with 38% (± 3%) votes, marking a significant setback for the incumbent. Other parties are likely to win just 2 ± 2 seats.

Tamil Nadu: DMK-led alliance to retain power, TVK makes mark
In Tamil Nadu, the DMK-led alliance is forecast to retain power with 125 ± 11 seats and a 39% (± 3%) vote share. Actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam is expected to emerge as a strong player in its debut, securing 63 ± 11 seats with a 30% (± 3%) vote share. The AIADMK-led alliance is projected at 45 ± 11 seats with 27% (± 3%) vote share.

Assam: NDA projected to sweep
In Assam, the BJP-led NDA is expected to retain power comfortably, with projections of 102 ± 9 seats and a 50% (± 3%) vote share. The Congress-led alliance is likely to trail with 14 to 32 seats, while other parties may have a minimal presence.

Kerala: UDF holds slight edge in close contest
In Kerala, the pollster predicts a tight race, with the UDF projected to secure 69 ± 9 seats with a 40% (± 3%) vote share. The LDF is close behind with 64 ± 9 seats and a 38% (± 3%) vote share. The BJP-led alliance is expected to win 7 ± 4 seats with a 20% (± 3%) vote share, while others may remain marginal. The forecast suggests a possible return to power for the UDF after two consecutive terms for the LDF.