CPM picks over-confidence as reason for loss, presents debatable election figures to predict third Assembly win

The CPM State Secretariat and State Committee, after three days of deliberation, came up with the reasons for the "unexpected loss" of the LDF in the just concluded local body polls. The Sabarimala gold theft and the performance of the LDF government do not feature in the list.

The factors that caused the defeat, according to the CPM's assessment, are: false communal propaganda by the opposition and the media, organisational failures and over-confidence.

"The LDF government was over-confident of a win, especially after the decisions taken at the October 29 cabinet meeting," CPM state secretary M V Govindan told reporters on Monday after the conclusion of the three-day CPM State Committee and Secretariat meetings.

It was at the October 29 Cabinet meeting that social security pensions were hiked to ₹2000, and ₹1000 was declared for women (Sthree Shakthi pension) and youth (connect-to-work scholarship).

Though he claimed that the Sabarimala gold scandal did not influence voting behaviour, one of the reasons cited for the loss - "false communal propaganda by the opposition and the media" - hinted that it had. When the Sabarimala poser was persistently put to him, Govindan conceded that the scandal did have a marginal influence that was more the result of the opposition's and the media's false propaganda than any conviction on the part of the voters that the LDF government had any role in it. 

"The UDF and the BJP unleashed a strong slanderous campaign against the LDF. However, the results show that they could not succeed in a way they had hoped," the CPM state secretary said, yet again admitting that the Sabarimala scandal had at least a slight impact. 

As proof that Sabarimala did not have much of an impact, Govindan said that the LDF had won the Ranni-Perunadu grama panchayat under which the Sabarimala shrine falls and also Pandalam Municipality, which Govindan termed as "the centre of the Sabarimala faithful". Fact is, Ranni-Perunadu was already ruled by the CPM, but this time it increased its number to 10 from nine and the BJP's presence shrunk to three seats from five. Pandalam Municipality, however, the LDF wrested from the BJP.

The CPM state secretary also sought to position LDF as the only secular alternative in Kerala. He alleged that the BJP and the UDF had ganged up against the LDF. "In many areas where the UDF was strong, the BJP votes were transferred to the UDF and vice versa. A close analysis revealed that this had happened across Kerala," he said. Thiruvananthapuram Corporation was held up as an example of this alleged BJP-UDF alliance. "In the 41 divisions where the BJP won, the UDF came third," he said, suggesting a possible vote shift from the Congress to the BJP.

Though he termed the result as an "unexpected loss", the CPM state secretary still spotted a surge in popularity for the LDF. He claimed that the LDF's vote share rose from 33.60 per cent during the 2024 Lok Sabha polls to 39.73 per cent in this local body polls. In numbers, what was 66,65,370 votes swelled to 84,10,085 votes this time. "An increase of seventeen lakh thirty five thousand and seven hundred (17,35,700) votes," Govindan said. "The other two fronts did not have such an increase in votes," he said.

According to him, this meant that the LDF had a clear lead in 60 Assembly constituencies. "There were a number of Assembly segments where the LDF lost by a slender margin. The party believes that these constituencies, too, could be wrested back by doing proper political work," Govindan said. The local body poll results, in short, has reinforced the CPM belief that the LDF could return to power for the third consecutive time.

However, the election figures from which the party has drawn confidence are at odds with the figures put out by the State Election Commission. Relative to the Lok Sabha performance, the SEC figures show not a soar in vote share for the LDF to nearly 40 per cent but a stagnation; 33.60 per cent for the 2024 Lok Sabha and 33.45 per cent for the 2025 local body polls. 

Even the actual number of votes presented by Govindan looked way off the mark. The SEC figures show that the total number of votes the LDF had received for panchayats, municipalities and corporations combined this time was 70,99,175 and not 84,10,085 as claimed by Govindan. Therefore, the actual increase in votes is not 17 lakh-plus but a modest 4.3 lakh.

Even then, the SEC figures show the LDF has done better than the UDF and the NDA. The UDF, which won 18 of the 20 seats, had secured 90,18,752 votes in 2024. In the local body polls, its votes were 82,37,385, down by 7.81 lakh votes. Its vote share too fell from 45.40 per cent to 38.81 per cent. The NDA's votes also fell from 38,37,003 to 31,21,335, a drop of 7.16 lakh votes. Its vote share also dipped to 14.71 from 19.40 per cent.