Kerala Assembly elections: Check seat, vote share trends since 2011

As the Election Commission of India has announced the schedule for the next Kerala Assembly elections, a look at the last three Assembly polls offers insight into how the state’s political landscape has evolved over the past decade and a half. In Kerala, voting is scheduled for April 9 and counting on May 4. 

Kerala’s Assembly has 140 seats, and elections in 2011, 2016 and 2021 reflected shifts in alliance strength, vote share and electoral patterns. The 2011 election resulted in a narrow victory for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), while the Left Democratic Front (LDF) staged a strong comeback in 2016 and repeated its success in 2021. The 2021 result was historically significant because it broke Kerala’s long-standing pattern of alternating governments every five years, with the LDF becoming the first incumbent government in 44 years to retain power.

In the 2011 Assembly election, the UDF secured a slim majority with 72 seats, defeating the LDF, which won 68 seats. In terms of vote share, the UDF received about 45.83 per cent of the votes, slightly ahead of the LDF, which secured 43.63 per cent. The NDA polled about 6.06 per cent, while other parties and independents together accounted for around 4.48 per cent of the vote.

The political balance shifted dramatically in the 2016 Assembly election. The LDF won a decisive victory with 91 seats, while the UDF was reduced to 47 seats. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) opened its account in the Kerala Assembly for the first time when BJP leader O Rajagopal won the Nemom seat in Thiruvananthapuram district. An independent candidate also won a seat, taking the tally of others to one. In terms of vote share, the LDF secured around 43.5 per cent of the votes, while the UDF’s vote share declined to roughly 39.5 per cent. The NDA registered a significant increase in support, securing around 10.6 per cent of the votes, while other parties together accounted for roughly 6.4 per cent.

The 2021 Assembly election further consolidated the LDF’s position. The front increased its tally to 99 seats, while the UDF won 41 seats. The NDA failed to win a seat in the election, losing the Nemom constituency, which had been its only representation in the Assembly. In terms of vote share, the LDF secured 45.43 per cent of the votes, while the UDF received 39.47 per cent. The NDA improved its vote share further to 12.41 per cent, even though it did not translate into seats. Other parties together accounted for around 2.69 per cent of the vote.

Among individual parties, the CPM has been the dominant force in the Assembly in recent elections. The party won 45 seats in 2011, increased its tally to 59 in 2016 and further to 62 in 2021. The CPI, another key LDF constituent, secured 13 seats in 2011, 19 seats in 2016 and 17 seats in 2021. The Congress, the largest party in the UDF, won 38 seats in 2011 but saw its tally drop to 21 seats in 2016, a number it maintained in 2021. The Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) won 20 seats in 2011, 18 in 2016 and 15 in 2021. Smaller allies such as Kerala Congress factions and the NCP have also continued to play important roles within alliances. The BJP’s only Assembly victory so far came in 2016 when O Rajagopal won Nemom.

Voter turnout in Kerala has consistently remained high across elections. In 2011, the turnout stood at 75.26 per cent. It increased further to about 77.5 per cent in the 2016 election and stood at 76 per cent in the 2021 election. The proportion of NOTA votes has remained relatively small in all three elections, generally below one per cent of the total votes cast.

Several byelections have taken place since the 2021 Assembly election. The first major bypoll during the current Assembly term was held in Thrikkakara in 2022 following the death of Congress MLA P T Thomas. His wife, Uma Thomas, contested the seat for the Congress-led UDF and won the election. In 2023, a byelection was held in Puthuppally after the death of former chief minister Oommen Chandy. His son Chandy Oommen contested on behalf of the UDF and retained the seat with a decisive victory.

Further byelections were held in 2024 and 2025. The Chelakkara bypoll in 2024 was won by the LDF’s U R Pradeep after the seat fell vacant following the election of K Radhakrishnan to the Lok Sabha. In the same year, the Palakkad byelection was held after Shafi Parambil was elected to Parliament, and the seat was won by the Congress candidate Rahul Mamkootathil. Mamkootathil was later expelled from the Congress following his tie up in a sexual assault case. The Nilambur byelection in 2025 followed the resignation of MLA P V Anvar, and the seat was won by Aryadan Shoukath of the Congress-led UDF.

While the UDF had the edge in the 2011 election, the LDF regained ground in 2016 and consolidated its position in 2021. The NDA has steadily increased its vote share over the years, but has struggled to convert those votes into Assembly seats.

With the Election Commission expected to announce the next Assembly election schedule, the upcoming contest will again test whether the LDF can extend its run in power or whether Kerala returns to its traditional pattern of alternating governments.