CPM scales down expectations to tight finish with 75 seats, 25 sitting MLAs likely to lose
The CPM's State Secretariat projects a much tighter election outcome than publicly stated, anticipating retaining power with a narrow margin of just over 75 seats and potentially losing up to 25 sitting seats.
The CPM's State Secretariat projects a much tighter election outcome than publicly stated, anticipating retaining power with a narrow margin of just over 75 seats and potentially losing up to 25 sitting seats.
The CPM's State Secretariat projects a much tighter election outcome than publicly stated, anticipating retaining power with a narrow margin of just over 75 seats and potentially losing up to 25 sitting seats.
Thiruvananthapuram: Despite public assertions by the CPM State Secretary predicting a sweeping victory for the coalition with over 90 seats, the party’s State Secretariat meeting on Sunday did not foresee any such trend.
An internal assessment by the secretariat suggested a much tighter outcome, projecting that the LDF would retain power with a narrow margin of just over 75 seats. The party believes that nearly 25 sitting seats could be lost, while hoping to gain three to five constituencies from the United Democratic Front (UDF). Even in traditional strongholds, including Dharmadam, the party does not anticipate large victory margins. In fact, in 10 to 15 constituencies, margins are expected to be below 3,000 votes.
While the party has publicly maintained that defectors who contested on UDF tickets would not succeed, concerns do persist in Ambalapuzha and Taliparamba. The CPM has also taken serious note of the IUML adding to its vote share in the Taliparamba municipal area where it holds influence, as well as the over 90 percent polling recorded in such booths. The party, meanwhile, also remains uncertain about the extent of Left-affiliated votes that may have shifted to G Sudhakaran in Ambalapuzha.
While post-election assessments generally factor in both assured votes and those of fellow travellers, the party has relied primarily on assured votes this time to arrive at a more realistic estimate. The inclusion of fellow travellers’ votes could still help the LDF scrape through with a slender majority of seats.
Setbacks are anticipated in central Kerala districts such as Ernakulam, Thrissur, Kottayam, and Idukki. Pathanamthitta, however, is expected to strongly back the LDF. Despite initial concerns, Minister Veena George is projected to retain Aranmula with a margin exceeding 8,000 votes.
Of the three seats targeted by the LDF in Malappuram, the Secretariat noted that both Ponnani and Tirur witnessed stiff contests. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan did not attend the meeting as he was in Kannur.