CPM’s 75-seat projection based on internal assessment, field data
It was also assessed that the party still held a viable chance in 12 of the 18 closely contested constituencies, prompting the Secretariat to arrive at an overall estimate in the range of 75 to 87 seats.
It was also assessed that the party still held a viable chance in 12 of the 18 closely contested constituencies, prompting the Secretariat to arrive at an overall estimate in the range of 75 to 87 seats.
It was also assessed that the party still held a viable chance in 12 of the 18 closely contested constituencies, prompting the Secretariat to arrive at an overall estimate in the range of 75 to 87 seats.
Thiruvananthapuram: The CPM State Secretariat’s projection of 75 seats in the state Assembly has come after a multi-layered review of electoral assessments and field-level data.
The Secretariat meeting, held on Sunday, expressed confidence that the estimate would largely hold, barring a significant swing in favour of the UDF. The fact that this assessment is not based solely on internal party calculations also reinforces the State Secretary and other senior leaders’ belief in securing a third term.
Voting data provided from district secretariats had initially suggested a range of 80–85 seats. However, the leadership observed that even constituencies with only marginal winning chances were being projected by district units as strong prospects of victory. As a result, the Secretariat chose not to take these projections at face value.
Meanwhile, an intelligence report placed before the leadership also presented a more cautious picture, suggesting that the party has a strong winning chance in around 60 seats, while another 20 constituencies are expected to witness closely contested battles.
A third, unofficial survey conducted directly by the state leadership also points to a narrow but stable possibility of retaining power. After examining all three reports, the leadership concluded that there is a firm likelihood of winning 75 seats.
It was also assessed that the party still held a viable chance in 12 of the 18 closely contested constituencies, prompting the Secretariat to arrive at an overall estimate in the range of 75 to 87 seats. The higher-end projection of 87 was later extended to 90 by the State Secretary in his public statements.
Among the ministers, the constituencies of V Sivankutty, M B Rajesh and V Abdurahiman have been placed in the category of closely contested seats. The Pathanamthitta district secretariat had projected victories in five seats, but the state leadership ultimately approved only three as firm prospects.
Though the Ernakulam district unit reported that the party could win six seats, the leadership accepted only three of them as assured prospects. Similarly, in Thiruvananthapuram, the district-level projection of 11 seats has not been taken at face value by the state leadership.