Kerala on the edge: Experts call for sharper forecasts, local warnings and emergency shelters

Kochi: Kerala's monsoon is becoming increasingly erratic and intense, with rain arriving in shorter spells and longer gaps between rainfall events. At the same time, the state faces growing risks from heatwaves, coastal erosion and sea-level rise, experts said.

Kerala now needs to move beyond a system that largely responds to disasters after they occur and invest in climate research, forecasting, hyper-local early-warning systems, information dissemination, designated shelters and community preparedness, they said at the Manorama News Conclave 2026 session 'Kerala on the Edge'.

Atmospheric scientist Dr S Abhilash, Director of the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research at Cochin University of Science and Technology, and ecologist C K Vishnudas, Director of the Hume Centre for Ecology and Wildlife Biology in Wayanad, said Kerala needed to build climate resilience by integrating science, governance and local communities.

Dr Abhilash said Kerala's distinctive geography, which had helped shape its climate, was now becoming a source of vulnerability. “The most important changes for Kerala are the change in rainfall, the change in temperature and, at the same time, changes in the sea. These three factors come together,” he said.

Rainfall was becoming increasingly erratic, he said. Rain that would traditionally be spread over two months could now arrive within a few days, while rainfall received over a day could occur within a few hours. At the same time, the number of rainy days was declining and the intervals between rainfall events were increasing.

This creates a difficult contradiction for Kerala, Dr Abhilash said. The state needs to prevent excessive rainwater from causing floods while also conserving water, as intense rainfall can be followed by prolonged dry spells and water scarcity. Research into extreme rainfall events has also shown changes in the structure of monsoon clouds over the southeastern Arabian Sea near Kerala. Clouds that earlier generally reached heights of around six kilometres during the monsoon were now reaching eight to 10 km, he said.

Such clouds can produce extremely intense rainfall over a short period, which Dr Abhilash described as a mesoscale or “mini” cloudburst.

Vishnudas said Kerala had developed considerable expertise in responding to disasters, but the focus now needed to shift towards preparedness. “What we do before a disaster happens is what matters,” he said. A robust early-warning system should not merely generate forecasts. The information must reach people in a form they can understand and act upon, he said.

“We can now forecast a cyclone at least 10 days in advance. We have a lot of information in advance. But this information has to reach the people,” Vishnudas said.

Dr Abhilash cited the 2017 Ockhi cyclone as an example of the gap between forecasting and dissemination. Scientific systems had indicated the possibility of cyclone formation, but the information did not reach fishermen who were at sea in time. The experience led to the development of the 'Forecasting with Fishers' project, which sought to combine scientific forecasts with the knowledge of fishing communities and communicate information through multiple channels.

“For fishermen, it is not enough to tell them that there will be rainfall. The information must be actionable,” Dr Abhilash said.

He stressed that no forecast could be 100% accurate. "What mattered was not only the accuracy of a forecast but also its usefulness and whether it reached the right stakeholders at the right time."

Kerala, Vishnudas said, needs an integrated forecasting system that combines multiple models and brings their outputs into the decision-making process. Building credibility in forecasts is essential to ensure that people continue to trust and act on warnings. "Forecasting should be at least 70% accurate to build trust in the system, and for that we have to adopt models that work. And the information has to reach the people," said Vishnudas.

The experts also stressed the importance of hyper-local data. Vishnudas cited the community-based weather monitoring system developed in Wayanad after the 2018 disasters. Around 150 to 200 people in different locations measure rainfall and feed the information into a system accessible to district authorities.

The data has shown how rainfall can vary dramatically over distances of just a few kilometres in mountainous areas. Such information can help authorities issue warnings for specific vulnerable locations rather than applying the same warning or administrative decision across an entire district. It also enables residents to understand conditions in their own locality and decide when they need to move to safety. Vishnudas said the model should be expanded across Kerala, particularly in mountainous and coastal areas.

He also called for Local Action Plans on Climate Change for every panchayat, identifying sectors and communities most vulnerable to climate change and preparing them for risks ranging from water scarcity to landslides, heatwaves and impacts on agriculture and tourism.

Planning, however, should not be confined to administrative boundaries, he said. Kerala needs to consider natural systems such as watersheds, river basins and mountain ranges while assessing vulnerability and planning development.

The experts also called for greater investment in scientific infrastructure and specialised expertise. Dr Abhilash said Kerala needed more investment in climate research, advanced prediction and modelling systems, field-level vulnerability assessments and weather radars. Expanding the state's radar network would improve the monitoring of rapidly developing weather systems and could potentially provide one or two hours of additional warning in some situations.

The state also needs more specialists at the district level, including meteorologists and geologists who can assess local vulnerabilities and help administrations make decisions, Vishnudas said.

Designated shelters
Another major gap is the lack of designated shelters for emergencies, he said. People are often directed to schools or other public buildings during disasters. Dedicated shelters would provide communities with a known and predictable place to move to, particularly in remote areas where electricity and communication networks are often disrupted first.

The experts argued that Kerala's approach should ultimately shift from disaster management to climate resilience. Disaster management cannot mean waiting for a disaster, conducting rescue operations and then providing relief and rehabilitation, Vishnudas said. The state must identify risk drivers in advance and take anticipatory action.

That includes preparing for threats beyond extreme rainfall, including heatwaves, coastal erosion and sea-level rise, and incorporating future climate projections into spatial planning, infrastructure development and governance.