Blackouts thy name is September; why night power cuts will last the whole month

It is now certain that power cuts will last the whole of September.

When Kerala State Electricity Board Limited opened its latest tenders for short-term power for the period September 2026 to May 15, 2027, private producers virtually ignored September.

During the month of September, KSEB's daily emergency requirement was 500 MW daily for 'peak hours' (6.30 pm to 12 midnight), 200 MW 'round-the-clock' (RTC) power and 500 MW for 'night off-peak' hours (12 midnight to 5 am).

Indicating unprecedented power drought across India in September, there was not a single bid to supply power during peak hours this month. For all the other months till May 2027, private players were willing to provide power during peak hours even if at an exorbitant cost.

Even for the night off-peak hours in September, there was just a single bid. This was from PTC India Limited, and that too only for 25 MW as against the requirement of 500 MW daily.

There were two bidders for the round-the-clock (RTC) deal: RPG Power Trading Company and PTC India. RPG's was the lowest bid at 6.55 per unit but they could provide just 25 MW. PTC agreed to supply 50 MW but they quoted ₹9 per unit. KSEB failed to persuade PTC to reduce their quote.

However, on September 11, Kerala State Electricity Regulatory Commission refused to grant permission for both the night off-peak and round-the-clock (RTC) short-term deals that KSEB had struck for September. The KSERC said both the deals would in no way ease the state's power burden except push up KSEB's power purchase costs.

"The electricity demand during night off-peak hours of September 2026 is around 4000MW to 4200MW only. This demand may be met by scheduling power from the available hydel resources along with other contracted capacities. The proposed power purchase does not reduce the peak power shortages in the State," the KSERC said in its latest order killing the PTC India deal.

The Commission found as "excessive" the ₹6.55 per unit rate quoted by PTC India for night off-peak hours. "Since the proposed RTC power purchase at the excessive rate do not provide any significant relief to the power position of the State and lead to excess power during daytime, Commission decided to reject the proposal of KSEBL," the Commission said.

Since it is for the entire day, the contracted round-the-clock power will also be available during morning off-peak hours when Kerala has sufficient supply. Thanks to the increase in rooftop solar capacity, daytime demand in Kerala drops down to 2000MW. The peak or night-time demand, on the other hand, is at the 5000-5500 MW level.

In such a scenario, KSEB is forced to surrender power contracted on round-the-clock (RTC) basis. In other words, KSEB has to pay for power it does not utilise.

This is what the Commission meant when it said that the purchase of round-the-clock power could "lead to excess power during daytime".

With 'peak hour', RTC and 'night off-peak' short-term deals wiped off the table, no additional power is expected to flow to Kerala during this power-scarce September.

Now, considering Kerala's demand, the Centre has agreed to provide an additional 150 MW from its central generating stations (CGS). As it stands, Kerala receives 1,500 MW daily from CGS like NTPC Limited, Neyveli Lignite Corporation India Limited, Nuclear Power Corporation of India, and Talcher Thermal Power Station. The price per unit ranges from ₹2 to ₹5.

During August and September, because of the heavy monsoons, power generation in certain thermal stations had to be scaled down. The result was a daily shortage of 100-150 MW of guaranteed supply to Kerala. "So the additional 150 MW will only make up for the existing shortage from CGS and would not improve our power position in any significant way this September," a top KSEB engineer said. The cost will also be slightly on the higher side, over ₹6 per unit.

Desperate times call for desperate measures. The UDF government's declared intention to purchase power at cut-throat rates of ₹30 per unit is a manifestation of this distress. But KSEB has to get the KSERC's nod to go ahead with 'power at any cost' plan. This looks highly unlikely.

In its latest order, the Commission has not granted permission to any power purchase cost above ₹12.50 per unit. The KSERC knows that eventually the cost would be handed down to the consumers.