Trump’s agenda on the line as US heads to midterms
US midterm elections test public sentiment on Donald Trump’s administration by deciding control of Congress, where lawmakers pass laws, control the federal budget, and scrutinise government policies amid rising economic and immigration concerns.
US midterm elections test public sentiment on Donald Trump’s administration by deciding control of Congress, where lawmakers pass laws, control the federal budget, and scrutinise government policies amid rising economic and immigration concerns.
US midterm elections test public sentiment on Donald Trump’s administration by deciding control of Congress, where lawmakers pass laws, control the federal budget, and scrutinise government policies amid rising economic and immigration concerns.
On November 3, Americans will vote on whether Donald Trump’s party retains control of Congress or suffers a setback that could constrain his agenda for the rest of his term. Held halfway through a President’s four-year term, the midterms are a key test of public sentiment and can reshape the balance of power in Washington. Here is how they work and what is at stake.
What are midterm elections?
The US President serves a four-year term. Elections held two years after the presidential election are known as midterm elections. They determine the composition of both chambers of the US Congress, the American legislature responsible for framing and passing federal laws.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election.
The Senate has six-year terms for its members. However, elections are held every two years for roughly one-third of the Senate seats. This time, 35 seats are up for grabs. The Senate plays a key role in considering and approving legislation, alongside its other constitutional responsibilities.
Several mayoral and gubernatorial elections are also held alongside the midterms.
The midterms serve as a barometer of public sentiment towards the incumbent administration. The President’s party often loses its majority in Congress in these elections, making it harder for the administration to pass legislation and implement its policies for the remainder of its term.
Months before the main election, parties hold primary elections at the local level to select their candidates. The nationwide midterm polls take place in November, with voters casting their ballots at polling stations or through postal voting.
Why control of Congress is crucial
The US Congress is the country’s principal legislative body and one of the three branches of the federal government, alongside the President and the Supreme Court. It is responsible for framing new federal laws and amending the existing ones. Even if the President proposes a policy, Congress must debate and approve the relevant legislation before it becomes law.
Congress also controls the federal purse, approving the budget, tax collection and government spending. The administration can access funds to run the government only with congressional authorisation.
Besides making laws, Congress has the power to scrutinise the functioning of the President and other government officials. It also has the constitutional authority to declare war against a nation. Although the President is the commander-in-chief of the US armed forces, Congress plays a crucial role in decisions on war and military funding.
The US Congress has two chambers: the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Who controls the US Congress now?
The Republican Party currently controls both the House of Representatives and the Senate, but its majorities are slim. In the 435-member House, the Republicans hold 218 seats, just enough for a narrow majority. The Democrats have 214 seats, while one seat is held by an independent member. Two seats are vacant.
In the Senate, President Donald Trump’s Republican Party holds 53 seats, giving it a narrow edge over the Democrats. The Democrats would need to gain a net four seats to secure a 51-seat majority, assuming the other seats remain unchanged. If the Senate is split 50-50, the Republican Vice President can cast the tie-breaking vote.
A Democratic takeover of either chamber would give the party greater control over the legislative agenda in that chamber, including the power to decide which bills come up for consideration. Both parties also have seats they consider safe, where their candidates are expected to face relatively little competition.
A midterm test with an eye on 2028
The US will elect its 48th president in 2028, but it would be a mistake to assume that Donald Trump is safe until then. Every seat in Congress matters to Trump and the Republican Party, as the midterm results will determine how much control they retain over the legislative process.
Although Trump himself is not on the ballot, voters will use the midterms to judge his performance and his administration’s record. Trump has urged Republicans to vote in support of his policies and actions.
Recent opinion polls point to a decline in Trump’s approval ratings. According to the Silver Bulletin website, his approval rating stood at 50% when he began his second term, but had fallen to 37% by early October. A BBC report said 61% of Americans disapproved of his performance.
The issues that could hurt Trump
Fuel prices, inflation and healthcare costs are emerging as key voter concerns. The US-Iran war, which began in February, could also shape the midterm verdict.
Inflation has outpaced the Federal Reserve’s projections, while Democrats accuse Trump’s unilateral tariffs of driving up costs for American consumers.
Immigration remains another flashpoint. Republicans, however, say the administration has delivered on its campaign promise by cracking down on illegal immigration.
AI regulation is also gaining traction as an issue, with senior leaders from both parties calling for safeguards. Trump has opposed legislation to regulate the technology, a position that could become a factor in the polls.
Toss-up seats set the stage for a close fight
While both parties have seats they expect to retain, the battle is wide open in 21 congressional districts classified as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, which tracks US elections.
Republicans currently hold 15 of these 21 House seats, putting their narrow majority at risk. In the Senate, seven seats are rated toss-ups. Republicans won six of them in the previous election, making these contests crucial to the battle for control of the chamber.
Key candidates in the fray
Six Indian-origin lawmakers currently serve in the US House of Representatives, representing districts across the country. They are Raja Krishnamoorthi (Illinois), Shri Thanedar (Michigan), Ro Khanna (California’s 17th District), Pramila Jayapal (Washington’s 7th), Ami Bera (California’s 3rd) and Suhas Subramanyam (Virginia’s 10th).
Of the six, only Khanna, Jayapal, Bera and Subramanyam remain in the midterm race. Krishnamoorthi and Thanedar were knocked out in the primaries.
Dr Amish Shah is contesting as the Democratic candidate from Arizona’s 1st District, while Priya Dandiy is in the fray from Florida’s 22nd District.
In the gubernatorial race, biotech entrepreneur and politician Vivek Ramaswamy is the Republican candidate in Ohio. Aruna Miller, 66, the Indian-origin lieutenant governor of Maryland who was born in Hyderabad, is also seeking another term.
Malayali eyes LA mayor’s post
Malayali Nithya Raman, 45, is in the race to become the next mayor of Los Angeles, taking on incumbent Karen Bass, 73, as the Democratic candidate. Opinion polls put Raman’s support at 56%. If elected, she would become the first Indian American to lead the second-largest city in the US.
Raman has served on the Los Angeles City Council since 2020. Born in Kerala, she moved to the US with her family at the age of six. Her husband, Vali Chandrashekharan, is a Tamil-origin screenwriter. The couple have twin children.