Keralam votes, but who talks economics?

Keralam’s economy has, for decades, maintained an almost umbilical relationship with the Gulf. Since the 1970s oil boom, the State has drawn strength from migration and remittances in a way few others have. Even today, Keralam accounts for roughly a fifth of all remittances flowing into India, with total inflows projected to reach $135 billion this year. The linkage is so deep that when Gulf economies falter, Keralam inevitably feels the chill.

There is growing recognition that this steady stream may begin to taper. The unfolding conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran casts a long shadow over global economic activity. Energy supplies are under strain, fuel costs volatile, and the ripple effects universal. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, speaking in the Rajya Sabha, cautioned that the situation is evolving moment by moment and warned citizens to be prepared for prolonged adverse consequences.

If any Indian State has the most at stake in this quagmire, it is Keralam. With about 30 lakh of its people in West Asia, the State has a direct interest in stability there. Any disruption—economic or geopolitical—affects household incomes, consumption, and the State’s fiscal health.

Yet, a casual observer of the ongoing Assembly election campaign—voting is scheduled for April 9—would struggle to find serious engagement with these concerns. The public discourse, as reflected in much of the media, has been dominated by a familiar pattern of thrust and parry: charges of covert “deals” among CPM and Congress, main players and BJP, aiming for a breakthrough.

Also, rhetoric has often descended into the absurd. Dissenters are “cheats” or “class betrayers”. A district-level functionary derided a sitting MLA attributing her success to her “appearance”. Candidates and even the Leader of the Opposition were labelled “clowns” and “buffoons,” sometimes followed by rituals of regret. These “low-hanging fruits of campaigns” are eagerly amplified by sections of the media, often elevating them to “breaking news” in pursuit of viewership.

Lost in this din are Keralam’s substantive economic challenges. Opposition parties and economists had earlier talked of a looming “debt trap” . The State debt is projected at nearly ₹5.5 lakh crore by March 2027 as per the last budget. The Debt-to-State Domestic Product ratio hovers around 33%, even as revenues lag. GST revenue growth (after IGST settlement) remains below the national average.

Then there is the cooperative sector, long a backbone of Keralam’s grassroots economy. Hundreds of primary cooperative societies are defunct or teetering on the brink, sometimes sustained by “helpful” bad loan recognition norms of the Registrar of Cooperative Societies, an IAS officer. Thousands of people have lost hard-earned money in cooperative deposits. At least 3 IAS officers have headed Cooperation in the last five years but there is little clarity on how to address this structural fragility.

The State’s stance on developmental schemes is puzzling. For instance, Keralam has opted out of a centrally funded ₹2,925 crore scheme to computerise cooperative societies across India. While States—including those opposed to the Centre—have joined, Keralam cited concerns over “data security” worried over the Centre using State data. This forfeits an estimated ₹400 crore in potential benefits, even as the State says it doesn’t have resources because the Centre has curbed its borrowing.

On the campaign trail, focus has been on promises rather than prudence: free transport for women, monthly stipends for college-going girls, and promise of social welfare pensions of ₹3,000 per month. Missing is any discussion on how these commitments would be met.

In an environment where welfare is equated with political virtue, questioning funding can invite charges of being “anti-people.” Difficult but necessary conversations are deferred.

With days to go before polling, even party manifestos are yet to be released. Voters are left to choose in the absence of a clear articulation of how the State’s mounting economic challenges will be addressed.

Keralam has long taken pride in its distinctive development model, celebrated for social indicators and human development achievements. But when it comes to electoral discourse on economic substance, it is a legacy the State may want to live down. Wasn’t it George Bernard Shaw who remarked, democracy’s weakness lies in “counting heads rather than weighing them"?