El Nino worries: The unfinished agenda of water security

The subdued progress of the southwest monsoon has once again brought into focus the vulnerability of Indian agriculture to rainfall fluctuations. In Kerala, the first fall of the southwest monsoon has not had the usual vigour. Indications are that the scene is the same in large parts of India. Mumbai, on Sunday, welcomed a moderate landing of the monsoon.

A weaker monsoon may hit crop production. But India today possesses sufficient buffer stocks of rice and wheat to withstand a temporary decline in foodgrain production. However, a weak monsoon can still inflict significant damage on farm incomes, rural demand and allied activities such as dairy farming. Vinson Kurien (writing for BusinessLine), who has turned weather-reporting into an art form, says the outlook seems worrisome for central India and a few agri-focussed States.

Over the last decade, governments have not been indifferent to agricultural infrastructure. Programmes such as the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchai Yojana (PMKSY) sought to expand irrigation coverage and improve water-use efficiency. The Long-Term Irrigation Fund (LTIF), established through NABARD, provided substantial financial support (about ₹90,000 cr over a period) to complete nearly 100 long-pending major and medium irrigation projects. The Agriculture Infrastructure Fund (AIF) was introduced to support post-harvest assets such as warehouses, cold storages and processing facilities with relatively small individual outlays.

The challenge facing Indian agriculture today is whether these initiatives have adequately addressed the larger issue of water security as we grapple with climate uncertainty. Indian agriculture may no longer be a gamble on the monsoons, but it is a gamble on the management of water

The first concern is the limited expansion of assured irrigation. Despite decades of investment, only about 55 per cent of the cultivated area enjoys irrigation facilities. Nearly half of Indian agriculture continues to depend substantially on rainfall.

Independent India once embarked upon ambitious projects such as Bhakra Nangal, Hirakud, Nagarjuna Sagar and the Damodar Valley Project, which transformed agricultural landscapes. More recently, projects such as Sardar Sarovar and Polavaram have added to irrigation potential. However, much of the recent effort has been directed towards completing unfinished projects rather than creating new large-scale water storage systems capable of transforming entire regions.

The second issue relates to water-use efficiency. Several cultivation practices remain highly water-intensive. Paddy cultivation is a notable example. Agricultural experts have repeatedly demonstrated that continuous waterlogging is not essential for paddy cultivation. Pilot projects have shown that drip and precision irrigation methods can substantially reduce water consumption while maintaining productivity. In an environment where every drop counts, improving efficiency must become as important as expanding supply.

The third concern is the gradual erosion of storage capacity in reservoirs due to siltation. Many dams constructed decades ago have accumulated substantial quantities of silt, reducing their effective holding capacity. Consequently, even when rainfall is adequate, the country may not be able to capture and store as much water as originally intended. The publicly announced storage level being at a certain percentage level of capacity does not reckon the effect of silting. Reservoir desiltation remains one of the least discussed aspects of water management despite its critical importance for drought mitigation.

The fourth issue is the condition of rivers, canals and natural drainage systems. Here too, regular desiltation of rivers and canals is not yet an institutionalised practice across many states. Reduced carrying capacity contributes to flooding during periods of intense rainfall while simultaneously limiting water availability during dry seasons. Better maintenance of rivers and irrigation channels would improve water distribution, groundwater recharge and overall agricultural resilience.

The fifth challenge is the inadequate emphasis on decentralised water conservation. Programmes such as Maharashtra's Jal Yukta Shivar (under the first Phadnavis ministry0 demonstrated the potential of farm ponds, check dams, watershed development and groundwater recharge structures. Such initiatives help communities capture rainfall locally and reduce dependence on distant reservoirs. However, many of these efforts have not been sustained.

Water stress also affects sectors beyond crop cultivation. Dairy farming, one of the most important supplementary sources of rural income, depends on adequate water availability for fodder cultivation and livestock maintenance.

The foodgrain buffer being adequate, the more pressing challenge is protecting farmer incomes. If a deficient monsoon results in significant income losses, governments may have to consider targeted support measures, while banks and financial institutions should be prepared with standard relief mechanisms, including loan restructuring, repayment moratoria and fresh working-capital support for affected borrowers.

India's agricultural challenge is no longer merely one of producing more food. It is increasingly a question of managing every drop of water. While budgets have funded irrigation schemes, micro-irrigation programmes and post-harvest infrastructure, the unfinished agenda lies in expanding storage capacity, restoring rivers, desilting reservoirs and drought-proofing agriculture against an increasingly uncertain climate. The next agricultural revolution may not come from better seeds or higher subsidies, but from better water management.