New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling party is likely to lose two heartland states while a third is too close to call, exit polls showed on Friday in the final test of popularity before the Lok Sabha election due by May next year.
Surveys broadcast at the end of voting for five state assemblies showed the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) trailing behind the rival Congress party in some areas.
The actual votes will be counted on Tuesday, and exit polls have been wrong in the past, partly because of the sheer scale of Indian elections involving millions of votes.
Still, nearly all the polls showed that the Congress - led by Rahul Gandhi - will win a clear majority in Rajasthan and scrape through in Chhattisgarh, according a survey of surveys pulled together by NDTV.
In Madhya Pradesh, the same polls suggested the BJP and the Congress were locked in a fight down to the wire.
The combined surveys showed the BJP winning 110 seats, the Congress 108, and smaller groups 12 in the 230-member house. To rule, a party requires 116 seats.
The exit polls also predicted that the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) in Telangana will retain power, but forecast a hung assembly in Mizoram, where the Congress is in power.
Clues
"The BJP is struggling everywhere, for all its bravado," said Juhi Singh, a spokesman of the regional Samajwadi Party.
Modi, who came to power with a sweeping majority in 2014, has been praised for cutting some red tape, but has been criticised for failing to create enough jobs for the thousands of young people entering the jobs market every month.
He has also faced criticism for allowing hardliners in his party to undermine India's secular foundations.
Foreign investors who largely remain bullish on India's long-term prospects, are watching the state polls closely for clues to the national vote.
"The result would be consistent with what most polls are showing: that we are heading for hung parliament," said Jan Dehn, head of research at emerging markets fund manager Ashmore.
"The market may discount the results a little bit given these are state elections and there are often protest votes."
But a divided parliament would make it difficult for the incoming government to carry out reforms in the banking sector and other areas, he said.
However, the BJP denied such claims and said the exit polls have been consistently under-projecting the party's tally in all elections since 2014.
"The Congress can bask in gloat on exit poll results but this happy feeling would be short-lived," BJP spokesperson GVL Narasimha Rao said.
'Anger against BJP'
Buoyed by the predictions of exit polls for assembly elections in five states, the Congress Friday said the polls are clearly suggesting people are endorsing it as an alternative and the BJP is on back foot.
Senior Congress leader Sachin Pilot, who is also party's contender for the top post in Rajasthan, said "The anger was very palpable against the BJP in these elections and people were willing and happy to accept the blueprint given by the Congress. People want answers for questions which they have avoided for the last five years as price rise, farmers in distress, economy is collapsing."
"It is very easy to see that the BJP is in back foot in all these five state assembly polls and the Congress is giving an alternative which most people are endorsing and that is the take away from these exit polls," he said.
However, Pilot said it would be better to wait for December 11 to see the final results and added people are rejecting their propaganda-driven politics.
