Kolkata: Huge crowds thronged a Left Front rally at Brigade Parade Ground in Kolkata earlier this month, just two weeks after a gigantic show of strength by the ruling Trinamool Congress at the same venue.
The massive crowds were seen by some as a revival of Bengal's Left Front, gasping for breath following a string of electoral debacles ever since it lost power in 2011, after ruling the state for more than three decades.
The Left Front isn't naive enough to assume that crowds at a pre-poll rally may be directly proportional to the votes it garners. Bengal's once mighty comrades know they are fighting giant odds amid raging internal contradictions.
The Dilemma
It is an irony that the CPM, which was in power in West Bengal for almost 35 years, is now fighting for survival.
And the party's survival plan, stitched to an uneasy tacit pact with the Congress, is a bit shaky.
The party is conceptually confused about a tie-up with the Congress. This is more so because it had been fighting the Congress for years nationally and in the state.
The BJP's surge nationally and in the state changed the dynamics of LF's vision.
And after Mamata Banerjee rode to power dismantling both the CPM and the remnants of Congress, the Left party had been fighting the Trinamool too in the state.
The catch here is that the BJP, which has more or less emerged as the main opposition in the state is also the prime enemy of all these parties now – the CPM, Congress, the Left and Trinamool– nationally.
Naturally, the Left cadres are confused after talk of a tacit understanding between the CPM and the Congress in the state began to do the rounds.
There were few other options to take on the might of Trinamool. They also want to check the inroads being made by the BJP.
Opposition To Gatbandhan
A section of the CPM leaders and allies including the Forward Block and the RSP are sceptical about a pact with the Congress.
“Don't understand why CPM thinks that it will be able to counter the BJP and the TMC by joining hands with the Congress when all these parties are responsible for the dismal show of the Left in 2016 assembly polls,” a senior Forward Block leader told Onmanorama.
The state leadership of the CPM has not ruled out a tacit pact with the Congress. It has not ruled out such an understanding either.
The Forward Block and the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) are of the view that such pacts are detrimental to the interests of the Left Front.
Only the Congress benefits if such an understanding materialises, they claim.
“The CPM should not join hands with one corrupt party to counter the other corrupt parties,” the Forward Bloc leader stated.
The pointer is that the Left sees the Trinamool Congress, the Congress and the BJP as parties with regressive ideologies.
According to RSP also, the alliance will bring in votes to Congress, but there are few hardcore Communists who will not vote for such a ‘Gatbandhan’, or alliance.
Divergent Views
Citing examples from the 2016 assembly polls, some political experts are also of the opinion that hardcore Leftists refrained from voting in favour of the alliance.
“CPM is a cadre party. Its followers will never cast their vote in favour of the alliance,” a political expert said.
Only those would be able to draw masses with their political clout would be able to scrape through, he said, citing the example of Mohammad Salim's victory from Rajganj LS seat. His personal appeal worked there not the alliance factor.
CPM politburo member Salim was just one of the two candidates of the party who won from West Bengal.
Trinamool's Trajectory
The Trinamool does not seem to be perturbed by the BJP's emergence. Calculation of Mamata's party is that since the opposition votes are any way going to be split, it has a better chance to retain its 2014 tally of 34 out of the 42 Lok Sabha seats.
“This will also keep BJP at bay as the combination of Congress and Left Front votes will push BJP to the third position. A multi-cornered contest will only ensure that our vote share remains intact,” a senior TMC leader said.
Trinamool's calculation also harps on the Forward Block and RSP's line that hardcore Left sympathisers would hesitate to vote for a Gatbandhan with Congress.
The Pradesh Congress Committee (PCC), which has nothing much to lose, is not that uncomfortable to align with the Left Front.
In this Lok Sabha polls, electoral compulsions at the national and state levels are throwing up uneasy possibilities in West Bengal.
The only common factor that unites a shaky, tacit political 'Gatbandan' is that the common rivalry of all these parties at the national level are targeted at the saffron camp.
And at state-level, it is the Trinamool, which is being opposed by the rest.
A divided opposition may not be able to check the Trinamool in such a scenario.
Mamata may well get a major chunk of the 42 LS seats from Bengal.
If that happens, she might have enough ammunition to flaunt her national ambitions in a post-poll scenario.
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