Amid Trump's remarks, data reveals India's oil imports from Russia picked up after dip
The rise comes as refineries were back on full stream to meet the demand during festive seasons, according to ship tracking data.
The rise comes as refineries were back on full stream to meet the demand during festive seasons, according to ship tracking data.
The rise comes as refineries were back on full stream to meet the demand during festive seasons, according to ship tracking data.
New Delhi: India's crude oil imports picked up in the first half of October, following a three-month decline seen during the July-September period. The rise comes as refineries were back on full stream to meet the demand during festive seasons, according to ship tracking data.
Imports from Russia slid from over 2 million barrels per day in June to 1.6 million bpd in September. But a trend reversal can be observed in early October, with imports supported by renewed discounts amid declining demand in Western markets and shipping flexibility.
The data reflects the period prior to the US President Donald Trump's statement claiming Prime Minister Narendra Modi has agreed to stop Russian crude imports.
On October 15, US President Donald Trump stated that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has agreed to stop Russian crude imports. However, External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal, responding to Trump's remarks, said it has been New Delhi's consistent priority to safeguard the interests of the Indian consumer in a volatile energy scenario.
Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst (Refining & Modelling) at Kpler, believes Trump's statement was more likely pressure tactics amid trade negotiations rather than a reflection of an imminent policy change.
"Russian barrels remain deeply embedded in India's energy system for economic, contractual, and strategic reasons," he said. Indian refiners, too, said that the government has not yet asked them to stop Russian oil imports.
India's purchase of discounted Russian oil commenced following the sanctions imposed on Moscow by Western nations, shunning Russia's supplies after it invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Consequently, from a mere 1.7 per cent share in total oil imports in 2019-20 (FY20), Russia's share increased to 40 per cent in 2023-24, making it India's biggest oil supplier.
Ritolia said Russian crude remains structurally vital for India, making up roughly 34 per cent of its total imports and offering persuasive discounts that are too significant for refiners to ignore. He wrote off the dip in demand in earlier months as seasonal fluctuations rather than an aftereffect of Trump's tariff pressure.
Most contracts for deliveries were finalised 6-10 weeks in advance, suggesting that deals were locked in before July 31. Therefore, the dips in the following months can be mainly attributed to refineries processing less crude due to maintenance schedules.
In 2023, despite narrower discounts, Russian barrels remain one of the most economical options available to Indian refiners.
Indian refineries can handle diverse crude grades, so there is minimal technical risk. Barrels from the Middle East, Latin America, and the US can replace Russian crude, similar to India's pre-2022 crude slate.
But whether New Delhi is ready to make that shift is another matter, says Ritolia."The reality is that cutting Russian imports would be difficult, costly, and risky," he added. He believes refiners won't leave a dollar on the table unless directed by the government.
While there has been a stronger push for diversification, contracts for Russian crudes are typically signed 6–10 weeks before arrival. Rewiring all that takes time. In practice, Indian refiners are gradually broadening their baskets, not to replace Russia in the short term, but to enhance energy security, continuity, and flexibility.
"At this stage, it's improbable that India will implement structural cuts purely to satisfy US and EU political pressure. If Washington intensifies pressure, Indian refiners could make a token reduction - on the order of 100,000-200,000 bpd - to demonstrate diversification and appease Western partners. However, these cuts would likely be symbolic rather than transformative," he added.
While importing higher volumes from the US to appease Trump is an option, the benefit is capped at around 400,000-500,000 bpd. This is because US grades face logistical disadvantages, economic challenges, and compatibility issues with Indian refining systems.
Kpler data shows Indian imports of US crude have averaged 310,000 bpd so far in 2025, an increase from 199,000 bpd in 2024, hitting a yearly high of approx 500,000 bpd (Expected in October).
(With PTI inputs)