WB exit polls show split verdict, TMC & BJP both projected to lead, DMK+ in TN

As the final phase of polling in West Bengal concluded on Wednesday, the 2026 Assembly election cycle drew to a close, shifting attention to exit polls released after 6.30 pm across West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Puducherry. With counting scheduled for May 4, trends suggest clear leads in some states and deep uncertainty in others.

West Bengal (Total: 294)
West Bengal stands out as the most unpredictable battleground, with exit polls sharply split between TMC+ and BJP+. People’s Pulse projects a clear win for the TMC+ at 177–187 seats, well above the majority mark of 148, with BJP+ at 95–110, Left at 0–1 and Congress at 1–3. Janmat Polls also favours TMC+ at 195–205, with BJP+ at 80–90 and others at 4–9.

However, multiple agencies suggest a contrasting outcome. Matrize projects BJP+ at 146–161 and TMC+ at 125–140, with others at 6–10. P-Marq estimates BJP+ at 150–175 and TMC+ at 118–138, with others at 2–6. Praja Poll gives BJP+ a wider lead at 178–208 against TMC+ at 85–110, with others at 0–5, while Poll Diary places BJP+ at 142–171 and TMC+ at 99–127, with others at 5–9.

Adding to this, Chanakya Strategies projects BJP+ at 150–160 seats and TMC+ at 130–140, making it another agency backing a BJP edge. Despite these differences, all projections indicate a largely bipolar contest between the TMC and BJP, with Left and Congress playing a marginal role. In 2021, the TMC won 215 seats against BJP’s 77, but current estimates suggest a far tighter race.

Assam (Total: 126)
Exit polls point to a decisive advantage for BJP+ in Assam across agencies, reinforced by vote share trends. According to India Today’s estimates, the NDA is projected to secure 47 per cent of the rural vote and 52 per cent in urban areas, compared to Congress+ at 39 per cent and 34 per cent respectively.

Seat projections reflect this dominance. Poll Diary places BJP+ at 86–101 seats and Congress+ at 15–26. JVC estimates BJP+ at 88–101, Congress+ at 23–33 and AIUDF+ at 2–5. Axis My India projects BJP+ at 88–100 and Congress+ at 24–36, with others at 0–3. Janmat Polls gives BJP+ 87–98 and Congress+ 29–30. People’s Insight estimates BJP+ at 88–96, Congress+ at 30–34 and others at 2–4. Kamakhya Analytics projects BJP+ at 85–95, Congress+ at 26–39 and others at 0–3, while Matrize gives BJP+ 85–95, Congress+ 25–32 and others 6–12. The consistency across polls indicates a comfortable return for the ruling alliance.

Tamil Nadu (Total: 234)
In Tamil Nadu, the broader trend across exit polls points to a DMK+ lead, though with notable variations. A poll-of-polls estimate places DMK+ at around 123–140 seats, above the majority mark of 118. ADMK+ is projected at 69–84, TVK+ at 18–25, and others at 1–5, indicating DMK+ retaining power while the opposition space becomes more competitive.

Agency-wise projections vary. Axis My India presents a major outlier, giving TVK+ 98–120 seats, DMK+ 92–110 and ADMK+ 22–23. Praja Poll projects DMK+ at 148–168, ADMK+ at 61–81 and TVK+ at 1–9. People’s Pulse estimates DMK+ at 125–145, ADMK+ at 65–80, TVK+ at 18–24 and others at 2–6. P-Marq similarly places DMK+ at 125–145, ADMK+ at 65–85, TVK+ at 16–26 and others at 1–6, while also estimating the NDA at 65–85 seats.

Matrize differs by projecting a stronger ADMK+ performance at 87–100 seats against DMK+ at 122–132, and gives TVK+ its lowest estimate at 10–12, with others at 0–6. People’s Insight offers the most optimistic projection for TVK+ at 30–40 seats, alongside DMK+ at 120–140 and ADMK+ at 60–70, with others at 0–4. Kamakhya Analytics projects DMK+ at 78–95, ADMK+ at 68–84 and TVK+ at 67–81, while JVC flips the trend, giving ADMK+ 128–147, DMK+ 75–95 and TVK+ 8–15.

Overall, while most projections favour DMK+, the wide spread in estimates—particularly for TVK+—suggests evolving political dynamics in the state.

Puducherry (Total: 30)
Exit polls in Puducherry largely indicate an advantage for NRC+. Praja Poll projects NRC+ at 19–25 seats and Congress+ at 6–10. Kamakhya Analytics estimates NRC+ at 17–24, Congress+ at 4–7, TVK+ at 1–2 and others at 0–1. Axis My India gives NRC+ 16–20, Congress+ 6–8, TVK+2–4, and others 1–3. People’s Pulse projects NRC+ at 16–19, Congress+ at 10–12 and others at 1–2, noting that TVK is unlikely to open its account.

Across states, the exit polls suggest a clear trend in Assam and Puducherry, a likely return for DMK+ in Tamil Nadu, and a highly fragmented and uncertain contest in West Bengal, setting the stage for a closely watched counting day on May 4.