The Manorama News–C Voter exit poll for the Kerala Assembly elections was broadcast on Manorama News on Wednesday, offering the first comprehensive snapshot of voter sentiment across the state. The survey, conducted between April 9 and 24, covered 28,848 voters. The sample was carefully designed to reflect Kerala’s demographic and socio-economic diversity, improving the reliability of the projections.

The exit poll outlines the overall political trend in Kerala, with detailed district-wise insights across all 14 districts. It also decodes key battlegrounds, tracks vote share patterns, and indicates public preference for the Chief Minister’s post.

As per Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, the Election Commission of India had prohibited the conduct and publication of exit polls from 7 am on April 9, 2026, to 6.30 pm on April 29, 2026.

Region: North Kerala
KASARAGOD
In Kasaragod district, which has five constituencies, the exit poll gives an edge to the UDF. The front is expected to win 2 to 4 seats and secure a vote share of 43%, a 7% lead over the LDF.

Seat projection: UDF (2–4), LDF (1–3), NDA (0)

Vote share: UDF (43%), LDF (36%), NDA (17%)

Hot seat: Manjeshwar
In Manjeshwar, where a keen three-cornered contest is underway, BJP leader K Surendran is projected to finish behind UDF candidate A K M Ashraf, while LDF’s K R Jayananda remains in the fray. The survey rates Ashraf as safe, with the IUML leader likely to retain the seat.

2021 results: LDF (3), UDF (2)

Constituencies & winners (2021): Kanhangad – E Chandrasekharan (CPI), Kasaragod – N A Nellikkunnu (IUML), Manjeshwar – A K M Ashraf (IUML), Trikaripur – M Rajagopalan (CPM), Udma – C H Kunhambu (CPM)

KANNUR
The LDF maintains its stronghold with a 45% vote share, but the UDF has closed the gap significantly.

Seat projection: LDF (6–8), UDF (3–5), NDA (0)

Vote share: LDF (45%), UDF (43%), NDA (8%)

Trend: LDF retains edge, but margin narrows to 2%

Constituencies: Payyannur, Kalliasseri, Taliparamba, Irikkur, Azhikode, Kannur, Dharmadam, Thalassery, Kuthuparamba, Mattannur, Peravoor

Hot seats:

• Thaliparamba: Safe for P K Shyamala (LDF)
• Peravoor: Safe for Sunny Joseph (UDF) vs K K Shailaja
• Kannur: Close between T O Mohanan (UDF) and Ramachandran Kadannappally

2021 results: LDF (9), UDF (2)

Other Exit Poll Predictions
The predictions made by other exit polls are as follows:

• Axis My India: UDF (78-90) | LDF (49-62) | BJP+ (0-3)
• Peoples Pulse: UDF (75-85) | LDF (55-65) | BJP+ (0-3)
• Vote Vibe: UDF (70-80) | LDF (58-68) | OTH (0-4)
• Peoples Insight: UDF (66-76) | LDF (58-68) | BJP+ (10-14) | OTH (0-1)