The UDF is projected to retain its dominance in Malappuram district in the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections, with the Manorama News–C Voter exit poll indicating further gains for the alliance.

Backed by the strong presence of the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), the UDF is projected to win between 14 and 16 of Malappuram’s 16 Assembly seats, improving on the 12 seats it won in the 2021 elections. The LDF, meanwhile, is projected to suffer losses in the district and may be reduced to just one seat, down from the four seats it secured in 2021.

In terms of vote share, the UDF is projected to secure 52 per cent of the votes in the district, comfortably ahead of the LDF’s 37 per cent. The BJP-led NDA is expected to remain a marginal force, with a projected vote share of up to 6 per cent. Other candidates could secure up to 5 per cent of the votes. 

Among the key contests in the district, Thavanur is projected to witness a major upset, with sitting MLA, LDF backed independent K T Jaleel likely to face defeat. Congress candidate V S Joy is projected to defeat Jaleel in the constituency, with the exit poll rating his chances as safe. Jaleel has represented Thavanur since the constituency was formed in 2011.

In Tanur, IUML candidate P K Navas's chances are projected to be safe over LDF-backed independent T Mohamed Sameer. In the 2021 elections, LDF's V Abdurahiman won Tanur by a narrow margin of around 900 votes against UDF's Firoz. This time, however, the Sports Minister has shifted to contest from Tirur.

The Manorama News–C Voter exit poll survey offers the first comprehensive snapshot of voter sentiment across the state. The survey, conducted between April 9 and 24, covered 28,848 voters. The sample was carefully designed to reflect Kerala’s demographic and socio-economic diversity, improving the reliability of the projections.

The exit poll outlines the overall political trend in Kerala, with detailed district-wise insights across all 14 districts. It also decodes key battlegrounds, tracks vote share patterns, and indicates public preference for the Chief Minister’s post.

As per Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, the Election Commission of India had prohibited the conduct and publication of exit polls from 7 am on April 9, 2026, to 6.30 pm on April 29, 2026.