Onmanorama's Know Your Candidate (KYC) captures the changing trends in a constituency, the pulse of of the voters from the ground and gauges candidates' chances.
Anto Antony
On top of the door that leads to the waiting area of Anto Antony's office in Pathanamthitta is a faded bird's eye view photograph of Pathanamthitta Town. It is a 2014 photograph, taken during his first stint as MP. He is now seeking a fourth term.
There is a local joke about why Anto has not bothered to update the photograph. "A picture taken from the same spot in 2024 will look just the same." The jest springs from Anto's allegedly biggest failing: Non-performance.
"What has your MP done in the last 15 years," is a question his rival candidate Thomas Isaac asks at every campaign stop. Even voters who told Onmanorama that they would vote for Anto said he had not done anything for the constituency.
Anto conceded that he could not spend his MP funds fully in the last two years. "But that was because politically-motivated officials resisted my proposals," he said.
Anto makes up for this perceived non-performance with political agility. On April 1 when a wild elephant killed a farmer in Thulappally, a village near the forest, Anto was quick to reach the spot. He assumed leadership of the impromptu mass protest, took on the forest officials, began a sit-in and refused to budge unless compensation of Rs 10 lakh was paid to the victim's family. He had his way.
Communal equations, too, seem to favour him. Orthodox Christians, the largest group in the constituency, traditionally vote for the UDF. Muslim votes that went to the LDF in 2021 Assembly polls could return. This possible shift is prompted by two seemingly Islamophobic acts of the Police Department. One, the Department stated that Eerattupetta is a den of terrorist activity. Even CPM candidate Thomas Isaac was appalled.
Two, 'attempt to murder' charge was slapped on 17 plus-two students, all Muslims, for allegedly harming a priest and disturbing holy mass at Poonjar St Mary's Forane Church on February 23. The SDPI, too, has declared support for the UDF.
Thomas Isaac
The Enforcement Directorate (ED) is former finance minister T M Thomas Isaac's biggest ally. The ED's pursuit of him has allowed Isaac to project himself as a politician of integrity and courage. "Send the ED after a Congress leader and he will embrace the BJP in fear. Not me. My hands are clean," Isaac tells voters.
The ED is also the bridge that helps Isaac quickly get to his campaign point. At Puramattam panchayat in Thiruvalla, for instance, he speaks of the KIIFB-funded Rs-450-crore drinking water project that would benefit Puramattam, Eraviperoor, Koyippuram, Kallooppara, Kunnanthanam and Thottapuzhassery panchayats. "The ED is after me for bringing this drinking water project for you," Isaac says. In one stroke, he is provider and martyr.
Isaac also wants to be seen as a philosopher who shuns material possessions, Marx in kurta. "My only assets are the 20,000 books I own," he tells people.
Add to the image the political advantage. All the seven Assembly segments are now with the LDF, including the two Kerala Congress (Mani) ones (Poonjar and Kanjirappally) that make up 26% of the voters in the constituency. Still, it is complicated. After the Poonjar incident, Muslim voters might ditch the LDF.
A bigger worry is Isaac's legacy. He is so identified as the architect of the LDF's economic policy that even after vacating office the former finance minister is seen as the cause of the current fiscal crisis. Most people Onmanorama talked to - roadside vendors, lottery sellers, head load workers - spoke bitterly about the delay in pensions, half-empty Supplyco stores, and rise in utility bills. All blamed Isaac.
Distrust of the LDF government could also sink Isaac. An old woman we found at the auto stand at Aangamoozhy, a backward hilly hamlet near Sabarimala, pointed to the glass-covered CPM local committee office bang opposite. "I have not received pension for six months but party men sit in air-conditioned offices," she said.
Anil Antony
The 'golden opportunity' that caused the BJP vote share to surge from 16% to 29% in 2019 has faded.
The resentment caused by the Sabarimala Supreme Court verdict on women's entry into the hill shrine and the Pinarayi Vijayan government's response to it had died down even before the 2021 Assembly polls.
This time, the BJP hopes to harvest in Pathanamthitta the fruits of the Christian outreach experiment it had carried out in Kerala. Anil Antony is the BJP’s first Christian Lok Sabha candidate from Pathanamthitta. So important is Pathanamthitta for the BJP that Prime Minister Narendra Modi chose it as his first port of call after the BJP candidate list was finalised.
This is not to say that Anil was enthusiastically welcomed. BJP's Karshaka Morcha district president resigned in protest. Fresh recruit P C George made unflattering remarks. However, the PM’s endorsement quelled the internal rebellion.
Modi’s blessing is Anil's major plus. Another, his youth and refinement. He exudes warmth but also sophistication. Still, staunch BJP supporters were conflicted about Anil. One group unconditionally backed him as he is Modi's choice. Another group is undecided as he was a Christian. "I am not comfortable with the outsize importance given to Christians here. All three candidates are from that community," a BJP worker said.
Yet another group see him as his father’s son. One set within this group finds his lineage, that he is A K Antony’s son, a strength. The other set questions his family loyalty, an important criterion in the Sangh Parivar dogma.
However, two new developments could prompt the group that value his lineage to disown him. One, the seemingly disrespectful tone Anil used against Antony when told that his father wants him to lose. Two, the allegation that he had received money from a middleman for a backdoor appointment.
Even if Anil could retain the 16% votes secured by M T Ramesh in 2014, he looks certain to fall short of K Surendran’s performance in 2019.