Onmanorama Assembly Poll Survey: Nearly half wants Pinarayi 3.0. Why this could be 'Advantage LDF'

Has the LDF government's aggressive PR strategy of showcasing itself as the force that transformed Kerala into a paradise of development hit the bullseye? Very nearly, it looks like.

Virtually half the 44,144 respondents (21,993 or 49.82%) who participated in the fourth series of Onmanorama's 'Assembly Poll Survey', 'Will Kerala Vote for Pinarayi 3.0?', said they will. Only a fraction more than half, 22,151 (50.18%), said they will not.

The Onmanorama poll results indicate that the pro-development image it is going all out to sell to the voter is helping the Pinarayi-led LDF government to weather the anti-incumbency sentiment.

It will also be wrong to read the slight edge (50.18%) for those wanting to see the back of a Pinarayi government as a sign of the Opposition having an upper hand at this stage.

If the growing relevance of the BJP in Kerala is considered, the poll result can be interpreted to mean that the LDF is dominant at the moment.

The 22,151 (50.18%) who want the Pinarayi government ousted would include not just those desiring the return of the Congress-led UDF but also those who believe that the BJP-led NDA, if not snatch power, can at least emerge as a decisive third force in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.

The BJP is inserting itself aggressively into Kerala's development story like never before. A telling example was the inauguration of the two National Highway (NH66) stretches by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on March 11. The event witnessed the LDF and the BJP vying for credit. The UDF was nowhere in the picture.
Therefore, when seen as a three-way contest, the Onmanorama poll results favour the LDF.

In the third question of Onmanorama's poll series, 'development' was established as the factor that impacted the Kerala voter the most. Onmanorama Poll 3 ('Which of the following will influence the voters the most in the Assembly polls?) suggested that the voter was far more concerned about highways, roads, bridges, schools and hospitals than the Sabarimala gold scandal; if nearly 60 per cent said 'development' was the factor that influenced them the most, only 15.65 per cent said it was the Sabarimala gold loot.

So read together -- the voter's emphasis on development and a near equal support for a government that has been ruling Kerala for a decade -- it can be inferred that at this point the 2026 Assembly elections is too close to call. Yet, the presence of the BJP can swing the elections in LDF's favour.

The findings of Onmanorama Poll 4 also agree with Poll 1 ('Who do you want as the next Chief Minister?') that revealed Pinarayi Vijayan as the most popular choice for the post of the Chief Minister. However, the votes for V D Satheesan and Shashi Tharoor combined in Poll 1 easily outnumber Pinarayi's, further hinting at the possibility of a photo finish.