Likely Christian entry, SDPI move make Manjeshwar messy for UDF; BJP, LDF face own churn

Kasaragod: Manjeshwar, a constituency known for its edge-of-the-seat finishes, is turning messy for all three major fronts as pressure groups and smaller parties attempt to extract their pound of flesh before the contest gathers momentum.

Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) MLA A K M Ashraf appeared to be riding a wave after the successful anti-toll plaza protest and a series of faux pas by the BJP, the second-largest force in the constituency. In the 2021 Assembly election, Ashraf defeated the BJP’s warhorse K Surendran by 745 votes.  This time, the outlook initially seemed favourable for the United Democratic Front (UDF). In the recent local body elections, the UDF pulled away from the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), securing 47% vote share against the NDA’s 31%. Until then, the two fronts had been locked at roughly 37% vote share each in Manjeshwar.

But new complications have begun to surface.

A section of the Konkani Latin Christian Association has floated the idea of fielding a candidate of its own after successive governments led by both LDF and UDF ignored its long-pending demand to be included in affirmative action by recognising them as Latin Catholics. In Kerala, Latin Catholics are classified under the Other Backward Classes (OBC), and receive a reservation quota of 4% in state government jobs and educational institutions.

“The 16 parishes in Kasaragod and Manjeshwar assembly constituencies under the Diocese of Mangalore follow the Latin rites. Earlier, we were under the Archdiocese of Verapoly, one of the principal ecclesiastical provinces of Latin Catholics. Yet the Kerala government, whether led by the UDF or the LDF, denies us the rights and benefits enjoyed by Latin Catholics,” said Stany Lobo, secretary of the Konkani Latin Christian Association.

There are around 7,000 Konkani Latin Catholics in Manjeshwar, a sizable bloc in a constituency where winning margins are razor-thin. Most of them traditionally back the UDF.

The proposal to field a candidate has triggered intense debate within the community.

“We are receiving WhatsApp messages suggesting dates for meetings. But our association includes political workers cutting across party lines, and many oppose fielding a candidate," said Stephan, a member of the association. "Some remind us of what happened to Christians in BJP-ruled Manipur. Others say neither the UDF nor the LDF has addressed our decades-old demand. A few even say there is no harm if the BJP wins in Manjeshwar. The discussions are lively,” he said.

If the Christian factor was not enough, the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) has announced that it will field a candidate in Manjeshwar. The party claims it has around 7,000 voters in the constituency. Founded in 2009, the SDPI had stayed away from all four Assembly elections in Manjeshwar since then. “It was not out of love for the UDF or expecting any help from the IUML. It was because of the BJP factor,” said Abdul Salam, former SDPI Kasaragod district president.

So what has changed now? The BJP remains the principal challenger.

According to Salam, the party’s grassroots feedback in Manjeshwar was clear: it should stop backing the IUML, particularly Ashraf, whom SDPI leaders accuse of blocking their expansion.

The party blames what it calls a grassroots understanding between the LDF and the IUML for squeezing it out.

To regain relevance, the SDPI has offered to back the LDF in Manjeshwar, but only if the front fields Shanavas Padhoor (46), former Kasaragod district panchayat vice-president, as an independent candidate. The SDPI had played a quiet role in Padhoor’s victory in 2020 from the Chengala division of the Kasaragod district panchayat.

Shanavas, son of late Congress leader Padhoor Kunhamu, entered politics after winning a 2017 by-election to the district panchayat following his father’s death. Denied a Congress ticket in the 2020 local body polls, he joined the LDF and contested as an independent from Chengala. He defeated the IUML by 139 votes in the traditional IUML stronghold, with the SDPI candidate polling 828 votes, splitting the opposition vote. Shanavas was later made vice-president of the Kasaragod district panchayat. By demanding Padhoor as the LDF candidate in Manjeshwar, the SDPI hopes to settle scores with both the UDF and the Left in one move.

But the CPM has already finalised K R Jayananda, a member of the party’s district secretariat, as its candidate. The CPM can ignore the SDPI. But CPM and DYFI units in Bayar, Paivalike, Puthige, Khateeb Nagar, Bandiyod, Uppala, Hosangadi, Vorkady and Meenja have launched signature campaigns pressing the leadership to change course- drop Jayananda and field Shanavas instead.

“Jayananda is a good candidate for party positions, but his influence outside the party is limited,” said Mohammed Zakariya, a DYFI leader and Paivalike panchayat member. “Padhoor can exploit the divisions within the UDF while retaining the LDF’s core votes.”

Zakariya argues that Jayananda’s candidature could hand Ashraf an easy victory.

When asked whether Padhoor’s entry could split Muslim votes and benefit the BJP, he insisted the political churn in both the UDF and the BJP could propel the LDF from third place to first. “We must break the narrative of IUML versus BJP. Both rely on religion to win elections,” he said, adding that Padhoor could raise the LDF vote share from around 25% to about 38%.

District leaders are not so optimistic. A senior state committee member said there was no turning back on Jayananda’s maiden candidature. In 2021, similar resistance forced the party to replace him with V V Rameshan, now chairman of the Kanhangad municipality. Dropping Jayananda now could reinforce the UDF’s charge that the LDF was indirectly helping the BJP.

The BJP itself is not free of internal tensions.

Reports suggest friction between former state president K Surendran and district president M L Ashwini. Both were said to be keen on contesting from Manjeshwar, a seat the BJP lost by just 89 votes in 2016 and 745 votes in 2021, both times with Surendran as the candidate.

Sources say Surendran has not been keeping Ashwini in the loop about constituency programmes. Ashwini, who is also the party’s constituency in-charge, reportedly offered to step down from the post during a core committee meeting.

Despite the emerging complications, the UDF camp remains upbeat. Ashraf enjoys cordial relations across communities, and his multilingual skills make him accessible. The Mangalore Diocese even features his photograph with the bishop on its website's homepage. His profile rose during the anti-toll plaza agitation, and he also seized on a controversy when a BJP district secretary questioned the citizenship of a Muslim voter during the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls, and when two cattle transporters were assaulted in Manjeshwar.

Yet the BJP secretly hopes that fragmentation of Muslim votes could alter the arithmetic. Nearly 80% of Hindus in the constituency are believed to vote for the BJP, while only 65-70% of Muslims typically back the IUML in Assembly elections. The IUML usually crosses the finish line with support from smaller organisations like the SDPI and sections of Christian voters who keep the BJP at arm’s length.

This time, however, some of those allies appear ready to raise the flag of revolt.