Why Central Keralam holds the key for UDF
Keralam's political landscape is divided into three historical regions: northern, central, and southern.
Keralam's political landscape is divided into three historical regions: northern, central, and southern.
Keralam's political landscape is divided into three historical regions: northern, central, and southern.
This is the third of a three-part series by K Bharathram, political analyst and founder of Poll Pulse on Substack, which examines Kerala’s political landscape ahead of the Assembly elections, analysing the LDF’s bid for a third term, the UDF’s anti-incumbency push, and the NDA’s attempt to emerge as a third front.
Part 1: Kerala’s social diversity, roots of communism, and human development model. | Click here
Part 2: Electoral history, alliances, and the trend of close, flip-flop contests.
Part 3: Region-wise dynamics and why central Kerala could decide the outcome.
We now turn to the political divisions of Keralam.
Modern Keralam historically comprised three kingdoms: Malabar in the north, Cochin in the centre and Tranvancore in the south. They are relevant enough to remain politically distinct to the present day.
Northern Keralam is the most important region politically as its six districts send 60 MLAs (out of 140) to the NIyamasabha. Given that this region (because of extensive deforestation and a changing climate) is prone to human wildlife conflict and to natural calamities like landslides, measures to reduce wildlife conflict and compensation in the wake of landslides are key electoral issues here. This region has on average about 50% Hindus, 44% Muslims and 6% Christians. Malappuram district is almost 70% Muslim while Kannur, Wayanar and Palakkad have ~30% Muslim population. Wayanad district alone has a significant Christian population (~20%). Palakkad district has a higher proportion of SCs (~15% of total, mostly Cheruman and Kanakkan castes), while Wayanad has the highest Scheduled Tribe population in the state (~19% of total, Paniyan tribe most numerous). In fact, both ST seats in Keralam are in Wayanad district. This region is dominated by 2 parties- CPIM that is strong in Kannur and IUML that is strong in Muslim dominated areas. The BJP has pockets of support in Palakkad and Kasaragod. The LDF has employed an innovative strategy of fielding independents / local leaders in seats which do not favor it demographically to very good effect, thereby winning almost 10% of the seats in this region over multiple election cycles. Parties like the Congress (Secular), Lok Tantrik Janata Dal, Indian Socialist Janata Dal, Indian National League (INL), Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) have all been supported by the LDF to win seats in this region.
The UDF has since borrowed from the LDF playbook and used parties like the Communist Marxist Party, Revolutionary Marxist Party of India to undercut the LDF. In 2026, the UDF is supporting three defectors from the LDF as independents in a bid to challenge the LDF in its strongholds. The LDF is trying to put up a stiff fight in this region to hold off the UDF. This is evident from the fact that it has moved one of its top state leaders K.K. Shailaja from a safe seat to contest against the KPCC President Sunny Joseph in Peravoor, a seat that has a high Christian population and that has elected him thrice.
The electoral results of last three election cycles and imputed results from the 2025 local body polls are highlighted below:
The above table shows that LDF has won more seats than the UDF in the last three assembly elections (even when it lost in 2011). However, it has suffered severe reverses in the 2025 local body elections. It now remains to be seen whether the LDF can reclaim lost ground in the upcoming election.
Central Keralam comprises Thrissur, Ernakulam, Kottayam and Idukki districts and sends 41 MLAs to the assembly. This region has on average 51% Hindus, 13% Muslims and 36% Christians. While Thrissur and Ernakulam have ~17% Muslim populations, the other two districts is only 7% Muslim. Christians are almost 40-45% of the population in all districts of this region, except in Thrissur where they account for only quarter of electorate. Idukki district is unique with a high proportion of SCs and STs (13% and 5% respectively). The Kerala Congress is active in this region. Formed in 1964 as a breakaway from the INC, the Kerala Congress and was initially supported by both the Nair Service Society (NSS) and the Syro-Malabar Church but has since undergone multiple splits and realignments. The number of factions within the Kerala Congress provide a good indication of how diverse the Christian electorate is in this region.
The electoral results of the last three election cycles in this region and the results implied by the 2025 local body polls is shown below:
This region has voted with the winning alliance in all 3 prior assembly elections. The UDF saw a significant rebound in the local body polls and will hope to retain this momentum in 2026. Twenty 20 party is a party with pockets of support in Ernakulam district. It contested eight seats in the 2021 assembly elections and got 13.5% vote share in these seats. It has since joined the NDA as mentioned earlier, thus augmenting the BJP in a region where it is organizationally weak. The upcoming election results will show whether this alliance arithmetic is effective. I will be looking at the Kunnathunad seat closely to see whether arithmetic will prevail (NDA can then win) or whether chemistry will come in the way.
Southern Keralam comprises of the districts of Alappuzha, Kollam, Pathanamthitta and Thiruvananthapuram. It sends 39 MLAs to the assembly. This region is on average 66% Hindu, 13% Muslim and 21% Christian. Pathanamthitta district alone is a demographic outlier in this region with low Muslim population (5%) and high Christian population (38%). Other districts are roughly two thirds Hindu, 15% Muslim and 18% Christian. Apart from Alappuzha, the other three districts have above average SC population (12-14% of total, Kuravan and Pulayan castes predominate). The Kerala Congress enjoys pockets of support in this region, as does the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) that has localized support in Kollam. Both UDF and LDF have relied on these smaller parties to bolster their support. The electoral results of the last three election cycles in this region and the results implied by the 2025 local body polls are shown below:
The LDF has dominated this region electorally in the last three electoral cycles and won a majority of seats even when it lost power in the state in 2011. Lately, the BJP has made inroads in Thiruvananthapuram district and emerged as the single largest party in the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation (winning 50 out of 101 wards) in the 2025 elections. A first glance at the region’s politics suggests that the growth of the BJP in this region at the expense of the LDF may help the UDF. However, both alliances will try their utmost to prevent the BJP from getting a toehold since they would like to project to the overall electorate that they lead the fight against the BJP. In at least five seats in Thiruvananthapuram, I expect that the primary fight will be between the LDF and BJP. The Sabarimala temple is located in this region and the controversy surrounding the temple may have some adversely affect the LDF here.
Conclusion
The LDF has dominated Northern and Southern Keralam in the last three electoral cycles and won a majority of seats here even when it lost power in the state. Central Keralam has traditionally sided with the winning coalition. The local body polls point to a UDF victory in North and Central Keralam and a close contest in the South. The UDF will aspire to sweep Central Keralam and contain/negate the historical LDF advantage in the North and South. This is the only road to victory for the UDF, and this again demonstrates why UDF victory margins have historically been small. The BJP is expected to put up a strong showing in Thiruvanathapuram district and is in the reckoning in at least three seats.