Sivankutty's 'aghori’ taunt and ‘CPM-BJP deal’ keep Chandrasekhar ahead in Nemom

Onmanorama pollmeter tracks 12 closely-fought constituencies across different phases of campaign: Nemom, Manjeshwar, Palakkad, Kunnathunad, Pala, Kottarakkara, Peravoor, Thripunithura, Ambalappuzha, Taliparamba, Payyanur and Nattika. This is the second part on Nemom where Onmanorama captures emerging trends from ground-level feed. Read the first part here.

Psephologists have maintained that voters generally make up their mind long before the official campaign starts. It is only a fraction, say 10 per cent, who wait till the last to choose their candidate. 

In Nemom, with 1.7 lakh voters, the number of 'late deciders' could be in the 15,000-16,000 range. A critical group, considering that the margin of victory in the last three Assembly polls was below 10,000.

V Sivankutty's mockery of 'aghoris', ash-smeared near-naked ascetics, who came to visit BJP candidate Rajeev Chandrasekhar has not done the CPM candidate any good among these 'late deciders'. 

It is not that voters would have felt outraged by his taunts of 'aghoris'. But by making these remarks, Sivankutty has granted his opponents the copyright over the most embarrassing chapter in his political life.

When asked about the aghoris’ visit, Sivankutty began sensibly: "These 'aghoris' should not be allowed to campaign. It is unconstitutional to mix religion and politics." 

Then, he got carried away. "Mothers in my constituency are concerned that these men would visit their homes to campaign for the BJP. There are little girls and boys at home," he said.

From the next day, BJP speakers at street-corner meetings went on a rampage. They recalled how a violent Sivankutty ran over the benches of the Kerala Assembly in 2015 without a 'mundu' on him. "Is there a scarier sight for children than Sivankutty jumping around with nothing to cover his shame," a speaker was heard saying. 

Many families in Nemom constituency found photographs of the 2015 Budget Day incident slipped under the doors of their houses.

Sivankutty has been disrobed of the grandfather image he has carefully cultivated over the last five years as general education minister.

Even voters who have forgiven Sivankutty for his past missteps are worried about his physical health. Many voters Onmanorama talked to said he did not look healthy enough to function as an MLA.

These factors have combined to increase the lead of Chandrasekhar. 

Though ahead in the race at the moment, there are signs that the BJP's campaign machinery built around the 'Viksit Kerala' theme is malfunctioning. 

Chandrasekhar's repeated assertion that there was no development under the LDF rule has started to backfire, as the argument over debate has now demonstrated. Sivankutty's willingness to engage Chandrasekhar in a public debate on development has caused the BJP candidate evident discomfort. 

Besides accepting the 'debate challenge' thrown at him by Chandrasekhar, Sivankutty has also distributed among voters a booklet listing the ₹900-crore development projects he had implemented in Nemom.

Either Chandrasekhar should agree to a debate with Sivankutty or he should find a convincing way to avoid it. Or else his 'Viksit Kerala' campaign is in danger of sounding hollow.

If Chandrasekhar still leads the race, it is because of Congress's K S Sabarinadhan. V D Satheesan's 'CPM-BJP deal' allegation seems to be rallying a sizeable chunk of the 27,000-odd Muslim population in the constituency around the Congress candidate. In 2021, Sivankutty had cornered a sizeable chunk of the Muslim votes in Nemom. If Sabarinathan takes away from Sivankutty, the BJP gains.

So even when his 'Viksit Kerala' theme seems to sputter and lose momentum, the deal allegation has ironically provided Chandrasekhar's campaign alternative fuel.