Sudhakaran may deliver CPM its biggest blow in 2026

Onmanorama pollmeter tracks 12 closely-fought constituencies across different phases of campaign: Nemom, Manjeshwar, Palakkad, Kunnathunad, Pala, Kottarakkara, Peravoor, Thripunithura, Ambalappuzha, Taliparamba, Payyanur and Nattika. This is the final part on Ambalappuzha, where Onmanorama captures emerging trends from ground-level feed. Click here to read the first and second parts here.

Along the Ambalappuzha coast, in villages like Punnapra and Purakkad, groups of fishermen playing cards under the shade of trees is a common sight in this furious heat. 

These are not men who are having their share of fun after a day of intense work. These are quitters. "The sea has nothing to offer these days," a card player in Purakkad said. "He is lying," said his friend, a bit drunk.

"We are sitting here and wasting our time because we are scared of the heat. But there are brave men among us who have gone out into the sea knowing that this sun could make them disappear before they even begin to melt," he said. The card players laughed. 

Realising that we were there to assess the constituency's political mood, the man said: "But the CPM is not like us. It will not be intimidated. Let Sudhakaran or even Pinarayi Vijayan come, the party will fight back," he said.

"Party leaders have visited my house thrice," another player said in a grave mumble, without taking his eyes off the card.

Guardians of Red Galaxy
The CPM has intensified house meetings and local-level party gatherings in Ambalappuzha after it sensed that 'Popular Independent' (Janakeeya Swathanthran) G Sudhakaran was dominating the race. Last week it withdrew party workers from Kuttanad and Harippad to do squad work in Ambalappuzha.

The party's informal intelligence network has picked up signs that indicated a small but impactful flow of guaranteed CPM votes to Sudhakaran. The party ecosystem has developed cracks but the leadership is not sure where the leaks would happen. So, to be on the safe side, it has set about strengthening the plumbing through which the party line is taken to families affiliated to the party. 

Sayeed, a fisherman in Ambalappuzha North panchayat, said party members have visited his house four times in seven days. His brother-in-law is a branch secretary. 

"Local leaders call me on the phone everyday to tell me why I should vote for Salam," Sayeed said. 

Apart from the doorstep campaigns, there are local gatherings of 10-12 families in an area where an influential local leader would explain why Sudhakaran is a "class traitor" ('varga vanchakan'). There are at least one gathering a day in all the five panchayats under the constituency.

Sudhakaran's boast
The most persuasive argument in these interactions was, ironically, provided by Sudhakaran himself.

In his first convention speech, in addition to saying he would corner some CPM votes, Sudhakaran also claimed he would get 5,000 BJP votes. 

This remark that slipped from Sudhakaran was left unclaimed for at least a week before the CPM spotted its political value. From then on, Sudhakaran-BJP deal became the theme of the party's vengeful rhetoric at public meetings and house-level visits.

It seems to be working. "I don't mind him joining forces with the Congress but to strike a deal with the BJP shows how low the man can fall," Sayeed said. 

But isn't the CPM facing the same allegation of a deal with the BJP? "That is nonsense," said Krishnan, another comrade who was with Sayeed. "One of the examples these Congress fools give as proof of this deal is N M R Razak's candidature in Palakkad. What these people don't know is that it is Razak who is drawing the largest crowds in Palakkad," Krishnan said. 

Have you been to Palakkad? "No. But a comrade I deeply trust said this during the meeting held in our library," Krishnan said. 

BJP bogey and Muslims
The spectre of a Sudhakaran-BJP deal serves yet another purpose. Muslim mobilisation against Sudhakaran. 

Five Muslim voters Onmanorama talked to, in Pazhayangady mosque in Purakkad and Ambalappuzha Juma Masjid in the town area, said they were disheartened by Sudhakaran's behaviour. One of them, Sirajuddin, said he belongs to a traditional Congress family. "Sudhakaran might have done many things for this constituency but this is unacceptable," Sirajuddin said. 

Why are you so sure? "How else can he say with such certainty that he will secure 5000 votes from the BJP," he said. The allegation has prompted some to turn the page back to the start of the campaign.

"Didn't the BJP have a better candidate than Arun Anirudhan? He was a poor third from the Ambalappuzha ward for the Alappuzha District Panchayat election just a few months back," said Abdul Jabbar, who runs a tea shop near Ambalappuzha Juma Masjid. While the winner (A R Kannan of the Congress) secured 21,733 votes, Anirudhan who came third had 10,411 votes, one of the worst failures. 

"What more proof do you want of the BJP's design to shift votes to Sudhakaran," Jabbar said. 

Truth behind Sudhakaran's honesty
The BJP connection is appalling for core CPM voters but even this could be forgiven if the qualities for which Sudhakaran is mildly mythologised -- efficiency and honesty -- dominate the voter's mind. So, special care is taken in the last days to subvert these.

Here is a conversation that took place during a local-level gathering at Komana, in Ambalappuzha South Panchayat. 

Local leader: It is said that all major development in Ambalappuzha had taken place under him. No one has disputed this. But when did this happen? During the term of the first Pinarayi ministry. A road would not materialise just because Sudhakaran says that he wanted a road. Plans have to be drawn up. Then there are complicated hurdles to be surmounted like AS (administrative sanction) and TS (technical sanction). All this require the approval of the expert committee. This is not all. It has to be placed before the cabinet. The Finance Department then has to provide money. And who is it that gives the final sanction? The man who is on top of everything. Comrade Pinarayi Vijayan. 

Male participant: Comrade, whatever you say Sudhakaran sir worked for our good and he was very honest.

Leader: I was coming to that. It is a fact that Sudhakaran is incorruptible. But under which man was he a minister? Under Pinarayi Vijayan. Do you know a special quality that Pinarayi has? He does not tolerate corruption.

Woman participant: Comrade, wasn't Comrade Pinarayi's daughter involved in a bribery scandal?

Leader: It is plain untruth. From where did you get this information?

Woman: I saw it in the papers.

Leader: (smiling, as if he was waiting for this response): Exactly. It was a lie spread by Malayala Manorama to destroy our party. 

The backlash
On the other side, a counter mobilisation seems to be working in favour of Sudhakaran. 

The SDPI has not fielded a candidate this time. This is widely perceived as a move to help CPM candidate H Salam. In 2021, the SDPI had 1629 votes, seemingly negligible but critical in a tightly contested poll.

"Unlike Sudhakaran, Salam blindly supports his community. On top of it, he is SDPI's man," said Shaji, the secretary of Dheevara Sabha's Purakkad Karayogam. He is also a BJP member and his wife was a BJP ward member between 2015 and 2020. "Here, Sudhakaran sir will win and our candidate (Arun Anirudhan) will emerge second. 

Another local BJP leader in Ambalappuzha North panchayat, on the condition of anonymity, also said that Sudhakaran would win. "We will not let the SDPI have its way here," he said. 

Does Salam have SDPI links, party worker Sayeed was asked.

"I don't know. But few years ago I had reported to the party that a comrade who worked with me in the same boat attended SDPI meetings in the evening. The party removed him from the branch. But later he was reinstated and I was told that Salam had spoken for him," Sayeed said.

VERDICT: By aggressively engaging its support base and painting Sudhakaran as a BJP man, the CPM has clawed its way back into the competition. 

Still, the respect Sudhakaran commands in the constituency, even among party workers, and a possible Hindu mobilisation in his favour can deal the CPM its worst defeat in the 2026 elections.