UDF confident of 80 seats; predicts losses for Veena George, Roshy Augustine, MB Rajesh

Thiruvananthapuram: While the CPM assesses that ministers Roshy Augustine, Veena George and M B Rajesh will win in the Kerala Assembly Elections held on April 9, the Congress estimates that all three will lose and that the UDF will secure victories in many constituencies where the LDF is hopeful.

According to preliminary assessments by district units, the UDF is expected to cross 80 seats comfortably. The party also believes that if a pro-UDF wave emerges in Alappuzha, Thrissur and Palakkad, where there are concerns, the seat tally could rise further.

Thiruvananthapuram: Kovalam will be retained. Strong winning prospects in Vattiyoorkavu, Thiruvananthapuram, Neyyattinkara and Aruvikkara. In Kattakkada, where a tight triangular contest took place, a narrow victory is expected. Vamanapuram, Chirayinkeezhu and Varkala will see tough contests. In Nemom and Kazhakoottam, where the BJP has influence, candidates K S Sabarinathan and T Sarathchandra Prasad estimate a narrow lead.

Kollam: Kundara and Karunagappally will be retained. Kollam will be captured. The RSP is expected to win in Chavara and Kunnathur. Strong contests in Kottarakkara and Pathanapuram.

Alappuzha: Left rebel G Sudhakaran may spring a surprise win in Ambalappuzha. Haripad will be retained. Strong prospects in Aroor and Kuttanad. Tight contest in Kayamkulam. Vote share expected to rise in Alappuzha.

Kottayam: Puthuppally, Kottayam, Kaduthuruthy, Poonjar and Changanassery will be won with strong margins. Mani C Kappan holds the edge in Pala. Ettumanoor may be won by a narrow margin.

Idukki: District leadership believes the pro-UDF wave seen in local body elections has continued. Minister Roshi Augustine is expected to lose in Idukki. Thodupuzha will be retained with a strong margin. Peermade is certain. UDF has a clear edge in Udumbanchola despite a tough contest. If S Rajendran, who left CPM for BJP, splits Left votes in Devikulam, UDF has a chance.

Pathanamthitta: Strong prospects in all seats except Konni. Minister Veena George is expected to lose in Aranmula.

Ernakulam: Strong prospects in 13 seats except Kalamassery. Tough contests in Vypin, Kochi, Thripunithura and Kothamangalam, but the UDF expects to win all four.

Thrissur: Strong prospects in Chalakudy, Thrissur and Manalur. If a pro-UDF wave emerges, seats like Wadakkanchery, Kodungallur, Guruvayur, Irinjalakuda and Ollur may also be won.

Palakkad: Mannarkkad and Palakkad will be retained, with Palakkad margin likely to exceed 10,000 votes. Minister M B Rajesh is expected to lose in Thrithala. Strong prospects in Chittur. Tight contests in Kongad, Pattambi, Nenmara and Ottappalam; a favourable wave could tilt them. Vote share expected to rise in Malampuzha.

Malappuram: UDF expects a clean sweep. Tight contests in Ponnani and Thavanur.

Kozhikode: Strong prospects in Kuttiady, Koyilandy, Nadapuram, Koduvally, Kozhikode South and Vadakara. In Thiruvambady, a narrow win is expected after a tight contest. If a UDF wave emerges, Kozhikode North, Perambra, Beypore and Kunnamangalam could also be won.

Kannur: Peravoor and Irikkur will be retained. Kannur seat will be captured. Tight contests in Azhikode and Kuthuparamba. Vote share expected to rise in Payyannur and Taliparamba where Left rebels are in the fray.

Wayanad: Minister O R Kelu is expected to lose in Mananthavady. UDF may win all three seats in the district.

Kasaragod: Manjeshwar will be retained. Strong prospects in Kasaragod and Trikaripur. Tough contest in Uduma.