BJP to reopen account in capital; Edge in Nemom, tight races in Kazhakkoottam, Vattiyoorkavu

Thiruvananthapuram could mark the BJP’s return to Kerala’s Assembly map, with the Manorama News–C Voter exit poll projecting the NDA to reopen its account in the capital district.

The BJP-led alliance is projected to win one to three seats in the district, while the LDF’s tally could drop sharply from 13 seats in 2021 to six or eight this time. The UDF is also projected to improve, with a tally of four to six seats, up from just one in the previous election.

Vote share projections, however, indicate a tightly contested district. The UDF is projected to secure 37 per cent of the votes, narrowly ahead of the LDF’s 36 per cent, while the BJP-led NDA is expected to garner 22 per cent. Other candidates are projected to secure 6 per cent.

Nemom is witnessing the hottest contest and is also one of the most closely watched poll battles in the state, with BJP state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar locked in a triangular battle against General Education Minister V Sivankutty and Congress leader K S Sabarinadhan.

The exit poll gives Chandrasekhar a narrow edge in the constituency. If the projection holds, the BJP could reclaim Nemom, the seat it won in 2016 through O Rajagopal before losing it to Sivankutty in 2021.

Kazhakkoottam is another key battleground, where former Union Minister V Muraleedharan is locked in a close contest with incumbent CPM leader Kadakampally Surendran and Congress's T Sarathchandra Prasad. The survey does not project a clear advantage for any candidate, indicating a neck-and-neck race.

In Vattiyoorkavu, another tightly contested constituency, former DGP R Sreelekha is contesting on a BJP ticket against sitting CPM MLA V K Prasanth and Congress leader K. Muraleedharan. The survey projects a highly competitive three-cornered contest in the constituency, with no clear frontrunner.

The Manorama News–C Voter exit poll survey offers the first comprehensive snapshot of voter sentiment across the state. The survey, conducted between April 9 and 24, covered 28,848 voters. The sample was carefully designed to reflect Kerala’s demographic and socio-economic diversity, improving the reliability of the projections.

The exit poll outlines the overall political trend in Kerala, with detailed district-wise insights across all 14 districts. It also decodes key battlegrounds, tracks vote share patterns, and indicates public preference for the Chief Minister’s post.

As per Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, the Election Commission of India had prohibited the conduct and publication of exit polls from 7 am on April 9, 2026, to 6.30 pm on April 29, 2026.