UDF ‘wave’ sweeps Central Kerala, LDF holds ground in Thrissur

Kochi: The Manorama News-CVoter exit poll, conducted between April 9 and 24 with a robust sample of 28,848 respondents, suggests a seismic shift in the political landscape of Central Kerala. As the state awaits the 2026 Assembly election results, the data points toward a massive UDF recovery in districts that were swept by the LDF in 2021.

While the LDF appears to be holding its “red fortresses” in Thrissur, the UDF is projected to make a near-clean sweep in Ernakulam, Kottayam, and Idukki. UDF is set to win 31-35 out of 53 seats while LDF is likely to get 18-22 in Central Kerala.

In 2021 polls, the LDF had won 37 seats in the Central region while UDF emerged victorious in 17. The exit polls predicted a sweep for UDF in Kerala with 82-94 seats while LDF is projected to win 44-56, and NDA 1-3. 

Thrissur: LDF’s last stand 
Despite a statewide swing, Thrissur remains the outlier where the LDF maintains its grip. In 2021, the LDF won 12 seats with a 47.22% vote share, and the exit poll suggests they will successfully defend this territory.

As per the exit poll, the LDF is expected to retain its dominance with 9-11 seats, leaving the UDF with only 2-4 seats. This time, the district saw a polling percentage of 77.11%. As per the exit poll, the LDF leads with 40%, followed closely by the UDF at 38%, while the NDA holds 16%.

There are two hot seats in the district -- Thrissur and Nattika. In the Thrissur constituency, the ‘City of Poorams’ may flip. UDF’s Rajan K Pallan holds a slight edge over LDF’s Alankode Leelakrishnan. Interestingly, Padmaja Venugopal, who was the UDF candidate in 2021, contested this time under the NDA banner.

Despite controversies surrounding sitting MLA CC Mukundan who is contesting as the NDA candidate after exiting the CPI, Nattika remains a safe seat for the LDF, with Geetha Gopi expected to secure an easy victory.

Ernakulam: UDF wave in traditional stronghold
Ernakulam, which stood by the UDF even during the 2021 LDF sweep, is now showing signs of a complete “UDF wave”, with the LDF facing a potential near-total washout. The district recorded a high voter turnout of 79.89%.

A dominant performance is expected for the UDF with 12-14 seats, while the LDF is projected to win a maximum of two seats. Interestingly, Twenty20, the newest entrant in NDA that contested in 9 seats, could not win even a single seat as per the exit poll.

As per the exit poll, the UDF will grow to 47% (+4% from 2021), while the LDF will drop to 36% (-3%). The NDA might rise to 11%.

There are three hot seats -- Kalamassery, Thripunithura, and Kunnathunad. One of the most intense battles is in Kalamassery, where minister and sitting MLA P Rajeev (LDF) is in a neck-and-neck fight with IUML’s VE Abdul Gafoor (UDF) and whoever the winner is likely to have a slight margin. The UDF holds a slight edge in Thrippunithura with candidate Deepak Joy against the LDF’s KN Unnikrishnan and NDA’s Anjali Nair.

In Kunnathunad, former MLA VP Sajeendran (UDF) is likely to unseat LDF’s sitting MLA PV Srinijin, despite a challenge from Twenty20's Babu Divakaran, who is contesting for the NDA.

Kottayam: Return of UDF fortress 
In 2021, the LDF breached this UDF stronghold, winning 5 seats. The 2026 exit poll suggests the UDF is set to reclaim its fortress with a commanding lead. The UDF is likely to reclaim its dominance with 7-9 seats, leaving the LDF with only 0-2 seats. With a voter turnout of 74.76%, the UDF could surge to 44% vote share, while the LDF could fall to 36%. The NDA could improve its standing to 15%.

The hot seats in Kottayam are Pala, Poonjar and Changanassery. In the high-stakes Pala rematch, Mani C Kappan (UDF) maintains a slight advantage over Jose K Mani (LDF) and Shone George (NDA).

The UDF's MJ Sebastian is predicted to win Poonjar, potentially pushing veteran PC George (NDA) to third place. In Changanassery, UDF’s Vinu Job is expected to reclaim the seat from LDF’s Job Michael.

Idukki: High range favours UDF
In a complete reversal of the 2021 results where the LDF won 4 out of 5 seats, the high ranges are now leaning heavily toward the UDF. The UDF is expected to excel with 3-5 seats, while the LDF's progress may be limited to 0-2 seats. 

The district saw a polling percentage of 77.15% this time. The UDF could hold a significant lead in sentiment with 49% of the vote share, compared to the LDF’s 37%. 

In the Idukki hot seat, a major upset is brewing, where the exit poll suggests a probable victory for UDF’s Roy K Poulose over sitting MLA and KC (M) leader, minister Roshy Augustine (LDF). The UDF is contesting under the Congress’ hand symbol after more than two decades and Roshy, who is contesting for the sixth term, faces trouble.

The C-Voter exit poll paints a picture of a resurgent UDF across the industrial, plantation, and central heartlands of Kerala. While the LDF maintains its organisational strength in Thrissur, the erosion of its vote share in Ernakulam, Kottayam, and Idukki suggests a significant shift in the political wind as the state heads toward the final counting on May 4.