Kunnathunad: UDF’s VP Sajeendran holds early advantage in tight three-way fight

Kunnathunad has emerged as one of the most closely watched seats in Ernakulam district, evolving from a relatively quiet SC-reserved constituency into one of Kerala’s most unpredictable political battlegrounds. Early trends indicate UDF candidate V P Sajeendran holding an advantage in what remains a tight three-way contest. The race centres on whether the UDF can reclaim lost ground, whether the LDF can withstand anti-incumbency, and whether the NDA can convert the former Twenty20 vote base into a durable alliance.

Highest turnout seat braces for close verdict
This year, V P Sajeendran is in the fray for the UDF, sitting MLA P V Sreenijin is seeking another term for the LDF, and Babu Divakaran is contesting for the NDA. Early projections have added to the intrigue, with the Manorama News–C Voter exit poll and the Onmanorama poll meter indicating an edge for Sajeendran in the constituency. Among all constituencies in Kerala, Kunnathunad recorded the highest voter turnout at 84.09% this time. The seat has consistently seen polling above 80 per cent since 2011, underlining its reputation for strong voter participation.

Twenty20’s NDA move changes old equations
The most seismic shift in Kunnathunad’s landscape is Twenty20’s official entry into the NDA. For a decade, Twenty20 maintained a strictly apolitical stance, projecting a corporate-driven development model that appealed to voters tired of conventional party rivalries. Its decision to formally align with the BJP has altered the equations in a seat where caste, community and local credibility often matter more than statewide narratives.

UDF senses comeback after 2021 defeat
The UDF has reasons for confidence. Veteran leader V P Sajeendran returns with strong name recall, long organisational experience and a reputation for accessibility that still carries weight in many booths. Congress workers also claim the party has avoided the factional troubles that hurt it in earlier cycles, while signs from recent local body polls suggest sections of its traditional support base have returned. In a constituency with a significant Christian population, especially Jacobite Syrian Christian voters, and a small but decisive Muslim vote share, the Twenty20-BJP alliance is seen by many observers as a development that could help the UDF consolidate secular and minority votes.

Can Sreenijin survive anti-incumbency test?
For the LDF, P V Sreenijin has campaigned heavily on development, highlighting road works, school upgrades and public infrastructure projects. Yet the challenge before him is larger than a development pitch alone. He faces five years of anti-incumbency, sustained criticism from rivals, and questions over political momentum after the Chief Minister skipped Kunnathunad during his Ernakulam campaign tour. That absence has been used effectively by opponents as a sign the Left is under pressure here. If the NDA fails to fully transfer Twenty20’s previous vote bank, many believe the advantage tilts towards Sajeendran.

In 2021, the constituency produced one of the most dramatic three-cornered verdicts in the district with the entry of Twenty20 to the fray. Its candidate, Sujith P Surendran, polled 42,701 votes, a striking 27.56 per cent share, splitting the anti-LDF vote. That helped Sreenijin win with 52,351 votes, defeating Sajeendran, who secured 49,636 votes. The margin was only 2,715 votes.

In 2016, Kunnathunad delivered a much tighter straight fight between the UDF and LDF. Congress candidate Sajeendran won with 65,445 votes, or 44.13 per cent, while CPM’s Shiji Shivaji finished close behind with 62,766 votes, or 42.32 per cent. BDJS candidate Thuravoor Suresh came third with 16,459 votes. Sajeendran retained the seat by a narrow margin of 2,679 votes.

In 2011, Sajeendran had won more comfortably, polling 63,624 votes against CPM candidate M A Surendran’s 54,892. BJP candidate M Ravi remained a distant third with 5,862 votes. The Congress victory margin that year stood at 8,732 votes, showing how sharply the contest has tightened over the past decade.

If the NDA fails to consolidate Twenty20’s previous vote base, and if the LDF cannot overcome voter scepticism on delivery and leadership visibility, Sajeendran is well positioned to overturn his 2,715-vote defeat from 2021.