Onmanorama poll meter tracks 12 closely-fought constituencies across different phases of campaign: Nemom, Manjeshwar, Palakkad, Kunnathunad, Pala, Kottarakkara, Peravoor, Thripunithura, Ambalappuzha, Taliparamba, Payyanur and Nattika. This is the final part on Kunnathunad, where Onmanorama captures emerging trends from ground-level feed. Click to read the first and second parts here.

Kochi: With just two days left for polling, Kunnathunad witnessed a high-decibel show of strength on Sunday as Union Home Minister Amit Shah addressed an NDA election convention in Kolencherry, launching sharp attacks on both the UDF and LDF. At the same venue, Twenty20 president Sabu M Jacob announced an ambitious ₹5,000 cr ‘special development package’, promising a slate of “dream projects” for Kunnathunad and claiming it was the first of its kind for any constituency in Kerala.

The optics were impressive, with the convention drawing a crowd of over 10,000 supporters. Beneath the spectacle, however, political signals appeared more complex. A majority of attendees were Twenty20 workers mobilised from across panchayats, while BJP cadre presence was visibly thin, estimated at under 1,000.

This mismatch reinforces a key question that has defined the Kunnathunad contest in 2026: can the NDA convert the Twenty20 machinery into votes at the same scale as in 2021? Voters Onmanorama spoke to believe it is unlikely, a factor that has boosted UDF confidence of reclaiming the seat.

In 2021, Twenty20’s Sujith P Surendran secured over 42,000 votes, altering the outcome by splitting the anti-LDF vote and enabling PV Sreenijin to win by a slender margin of 2,715 votes over VP Sajeendran. Five years later, that equation appears to be shifting.

“Back then, people voted for Twenty20 because it stood outside politics. Now that it is with the BJP, many feel that neutrality is gone. If even a fraction of that 42,000 vote comes back, Sajeendran will win comfortably,” said Shaji Varghese, a Congress supporter in Mazhuvannoor.

Ground-level feedback suggests that minority voters and sections of neutral voters, particularly in pockets like Pattimattom and Vazhakulam, are drifting away from the NDA experiment. Consolidation of this vote is emerging as a decisive factor in the final phase.

‘CM abandoned Kunnathunad’ narrative gains ground
The LDF campaign in the final phase is grappling with what cadres describe as a damaging leadership vacuum, now turning into a political advantage for rivals, particularly the UDF.

The biggest setback stems from Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan skipping the constituency during his Ernakulam district tour. While the “Captain” addressed rallies in five key seats, Kothamangalam, Kochi, Vypeen, Kalamassery and Tripunithura, his absence from Kunnathunad has triggered speculation. Rivals interpret this as a signal from the CPM leadership that the seat may be slipping out of reach for Sreenijin.

This perceived snub has evolved into a morale issue within LDF ranks. The situation has been amplified by a viral AI-generated video circulating on social media, satirising the internal unease. In the clip, an AI version of Sreenijin questions Vijayan over his absence, only to receive a sharp response, “athang veettil poyi chothichamathi” (“go ask that at your own home”), followed by “Kadakku Purathu” (“get out”).

Though fabricated, the video has struck a chord with grassroots workers who feel the leadership has “abandoned” a key seat.

“Development is our key highlight, but elections also need leadership energy. The absence of the CM and other national leaders in the campaign has left some of us feeling exposed,” a CPM worker from Vadavucode-Puthencruz told Onmanorama on condition of anonymity.

For the UDF, the Chief Minister’s absence has become a powerful closing argument. It is being framed as a sign of lost confidence in Sreenijin, whose campaign is already weighed down by anti-incumbency and sustained attacks, particularly over his clashes with Twenty20. The absence is also being linked to the LDF’s recent electoral setbacks, including its slide to third place in Lok Sabha and local body polls in the region.

By projecting that even the leadership has written off the seat, the UDF is attempting to sway neutral voters and consolidate anti-LDF sentiment.

The leadership gap is more pronounced when contrasted with rival campaigns. While Rahul Gandhi campaigned for Sajeendran and Amit Shah for Babu Divakaran, the LDF has struggled to match that level of engagement in Kunnathunad.

Apart from Brinda Karat addressing a meeting in Thiruvaniyoor, there has been no comparable deployment of national or top-tier state leaders.

Taken together, the absence of top leadership, the viral “abandonment” narrative and the opposition’s framing have compounded the challenges for Sreenijin.

Development pitch meets voter scepticism

The LDF campaign, led by sitting MLA Sreenijin, continues to foreground development in roads, school infrastructure and public facilities worth hundreds of crores. However, a gap between promise and delivery is emerging as a recurring concern.

“At election time, they list out projects worth thousands of crores. But many are still incomplete or haven’t even started. People are not rejecting development, they are questioning delivery,” said Leela, who runs a tailor shop in Poothrikka.

Sreenijin, however, remains confident. “We have brought unprecedented development to Kunnathunad in five years with projects worth ₹2,300 cr. Every panchayat has seen tangible improvements, and people will stand with continuity,” he said.

Even the NDA’s development pitch faces scepticism. The ₹5,000 cr promise, projected as transformative, adds to its narrative, but voters appear cautious about such announcements.

“There are always big promises before elections. People are asking what will actually be completed,” said Anwar, a voter in Vazhakulam.

Why Sajeendran retains the edge
Sajeendran’s advantage appears to stem from a convergence of factors rather than a single wave. First, consolidation of the secular vote. The Twenty20-BJP alliance has alienated sections of minority voters who had shifted away from the UDF in 2021. Signals from the 2025 local body elections, where the UDF reclaimed key panchayats like Kunnathunad and Mazhuvannoor, suggest this base is returning.

Second, the accessibility quotient. Sajeendran’s long-standing presence and reputation for approachability continue to work in his favour.

“Nobody really dislikes Sajeendran. He is someone you can approach anytime,” said George Varghese, a voter from South Mazhuvannur. “That matters in a close contest.”

Third, organisational momentum. Unlike previous elections, the Congress has avoided factional infighting and rebuilt its booth-level strength.

If the NDA fails to consolidate Twenty20’s previous vote base, and if the LDF cannot overcome voter scepticism on delivery and leadership visibility, Sajeendran is well positioned to overturn his 2,715-vote defeat from 2021.