Starting today, Onmanorama will track the contest in 12 closely-fought constituencies. Stakes are high, margins are thin in these hot seats. We begin with Nemom, Manjeshwar, Palakkad and Kunnathunad. Onmanorama team will capture the ground-level pulse and update the poll-meter.

Kochi:  Kunnathunad, a constituency in Ernakulam that has evolved from a quiet SC-reserved seat into one of the state's most volatile political laboratories. In the opening leg of the campaign, the air in Kunnathunad suggests a subtle shift. UDF’s VP Sajeendran appears to have snatched a slight, early-stage upper hand. He is being chased closely by the LDF’s sitting MLA, PV Sreenijin, with the NDA’s Babu Divakaran trailing as a significant yet unpredictable third factor.

There are many reasons to suggest the scales are currently tipping in favour of the UDF. The most seismic shift in Kunnathunad’s landscape is Twenty20’s official entry into the NDA. For a decade, Twenty20 maintained a strictly “apolitical” stance, focusing on a corporate-driven development model that resonated with voters tired of traditional party bickering.

By joining hands with the BJP, Twenty20 has effectively shed its “independent” tag. This move has created a vacuum for those who supported the movement specifically because it wasn't part of the mainstream political fronts.

Kunnathunad has a significant Christian population, especially the Jacobite Syrian Christian population and a small but decisive Muslim vote share. For these communities, Twenty20’s alliance with the BJP, which has shed its secular nature, is a bitter pill to swallow. Local sentiment suggests that Muslim votes in pockets like Pattimattom and Vazhakulam, which Twenty20 nibbled away from the UDF in the 2025 local body polls, are likely to consolidate behind Sajeendran to keep the NDA at bay.

VP Sajeendran isn’t just a candidate; he’s a veteran who represented this seat in 2011 and 2016.
Sajeendran has spent the last five years on the ground, recently punctuated by high-profile press conferences where he welcomed back several estranged Twenty20 workers. This has given an impression that Twenty20 workers, unhappy with the NDA entry, have moved in flocks to the Congress. His promotion to KPCC Vice-President has also bolstered his stature, signalling to voters that he has the political weight to deliver for the constituency.

Twenty20’s setback in the local body polls
Another significant factor is the confidence gained by the UDF following the 2025 local body elections. The Twenty20 wave that once swept the region is showing visible cracks. Out of the eight grama panchayats in Kunnathunad, four are currently governed by the UDF, while the remaining four are under the control of Twenty20. Notably, the LDF does not govern any of these panchayats.

Even in Twenty20's fortress Kizhakambalam, the party lost several seats to the UDF. While they still hold four panchayats, their margins have thinned, and the UDF’s success in wresting Kunnathunad and Mazhuvannur back from them has injected massive confidence into the Congress cadre.

LDF’s Development Defence vs Anti-Incumbency
Sitting MLA PV Sreenijin is banking on a massive development narrative just like the LDF does across the state. The LDF is highlighting infrastructure development in the constituency, since ‘development’ is the NDA’s main highlight too.

However, Sreenijin faces a two-pronged attack. Not only does he carry the weight of five years of incumbency, but he has also been the primary target of Twenty20’s mudslinging and corruption allegations. There have been frequent clashes between the Twenty20 and Sreenijin in the constituency over the last five years.

Historically, the margin in Kunnathunad (barring 2001, when the UDF won by over 20,000 votes) stays below 9,000 votes. If the disappointed Twenty20 workers choose to vote against their prime enemy Sreenijin by backing the most viable alternative, Sajeendran stands to benefit directly.

The ‘outsider’ factor in NDA
The NDA’s choice of Babu Divakaran has raised eyebrows. As a former Adoor Municipality chairman and ex-Congressman, he is viewed as an outsider in Kunnathunad, though the party claims its votes are secure irrespective of the candidate. Twenty20’s recent trend of fielding celebrities and outsiders has drawn criticism from its own grassroots workers.

Even traditional BJP workers in the region are reportedly uneasy about the party surrendering its identity to Twenty20’s corporate structure.

The verdict: A fragile edge
While it is early days, the math favours the UDF. If the UDF successfully reclaims the secular vote bank that Twenty20 has alienated by joining the NDA, Sajeendran could bridge the 2,715-vote gap from 2021 and emerge victorious. The margin is likely to remain razor-thin - under 5,000 votes - but as of now, VP Sajeendran is the one holding the pole position.