Onmanorama tracks the battle in 12 closely fought constituencies where stakes are high and margins razor-thin: Nemom, Manjeshwar, Palakkad, Kunnathunad, Pala, Kottarakkara, Peravoor, Thripunithura, Ambalappuzha, Taliparamba, Payyanur and Nattika. Our team will capture the ground-level pulse and update the poll-meter.

Kannur: Payyannur MLA T I Madhusoodanan may still scrape through, but the groundswell of support, both visible and covert, for CPM whistleblower V Kunhikrishnan suggests that the outcome, even if it favours the Left, could prove humbling for the party.

Within the CPM, there is a conservative estimate that between 10,000 and 15,000 votes could drift towards Kunhikrishnan. If that is added to the UDF’s traditional vote base, largely static at 42,000 to 45,000 since 1987, the combined tally could touch around 65,000. In 2021, when the CPM was electorally secure, Madhusoodanan polled 93,695 votes with a vote share of 62.49% and won by a margin of 49,780, more than the UDF’s total vote. By that arithmetic, the party could absorb a loss of up to 20,000 votes and still narrowly retain what has long been one of its safest constituencies.

But the UDF reads the numbers differently. It argues that erosion had set in well before this election. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, K Sudhakaran cut the LDF’s lead in the segment to around 8,000 votes. “In the local body election, where the CPM put up a strong fight, the gap widened again to about 34,000 but it is far less than the 50,000 of 2021,” said P C Jayaraj, Congress’s Payyannur block president. “So even a 15,000-vote shift could flip the constituency,” he said.

If Kerala is often described as the CPM’s last citadel, Payyannur has long been one of its most secure bastions. The party has held the seat uninterrupted, steadily expanding its vote base -- from 70,870 votes when Pinarayi Vijayan contested in 1996 to 83,226 in 2016 under C Krishnan, and then to 93,695 in 2021 under Madhusoodanan. In contrast, the UDF’s vote has remained largely capped.

The disruption came in 2023, when Kunhikrishnan, then Payyannur area committee secretary, levelled corruption allegations against the MLA. Since then, rivals say, Madhusoodanan’s personal capital has eroded. “There aren’t many supporters willing to go with him now. Youngsters, in particular, keep their distance,” said Youth Congress leader Mahitha Mohan.

At the same time, CPM leaders argue that the allegations are politically motivated and insist that development remains the central plank of their campaign. Madhusoodanan said voters are responding positively and are not swayed by what he termed “baseless charges”.

On the ground, however, the CPM sends out a message that it is rattled. Its supporters have repeatedly disrupted Kunhikrishnan's campaign. His temporary election office at Kothayimukku Junction near Payyannur town had to be dismantled after the landowner allegedly came under pressure. A second attempt to secure space also fell through. “It was just a shamiana. Even that was not allowed. We are now running the campaign from his house,” said a CPM leader and Kunhikrishnan's close aide.

Campaign material has also been targeted. A billboard at Kara, a former CPM bastion now with rebels, disappeared in broad daylight. Wall graffiti at Kandakkoran Mukku was erased and replaced with the MLA’s name, before police later covered the wall with shade netting. On his own property, the word “UDF” was prefixed to his name. Kunhikrishnan alleges this is a deliberate attempt to project him as a UDF candidate and provoke party sentiments among CPM voters, thereby blunting his corruption campaign. He maintains that he is contesting as an independent with outside support of the UDF.

He has kept the Congress at arm’s length in his messaging. “There is resistance among the CPM voters as the UDF is backing him. But the fact is his chances improved after the support came in,” said C Vaishak, a rebel councillor from Kara. He predicted a win for Kunhikrishnan.

Kunhikrishnan’s campaign is sharply focused: a single-point pitch to defeat Madhusoodanan. At every meeting, he returns to three allegations: misappropriation of funds collected for the family of slain CPM worker C V Dhanaraj (38), funds raised for the CPM’s Payyannur area committee office in 2016, and the Assembly election fund in 2021. In each instance, he points to the MLA’s role, first as area secretary, and later as candidate.

This narrow focus has its limits. Sections within the UDF feel it leaves little room to foreground broader governance issues. Congress workers, meanwhile, are running a parallel campaign. “We are going door to door with the KPCC’s charge sheet,” said Mahitha Mohan. The brochure mounts a twin attack on the BJP-led Union government for denying funds to Kerala, and on the LDF government for financial strain, rising debt and stalled welfare measures.

Yet, even within the CPM, there is an acknowledgement that Kunhikrishnan’s allegations may resonate more deeply with a voter base that is otherwise overwhelmingly Left.

The party has deployed senior leaders, including P K Sreemathi, who represented Payyannur for a decade, to consolidate support in sensitive pockets like Vellur, Kunhikrishnan's village. Her visits, however, have drawn pushback from sections of residents.

The campaign has also spilt into the personal. Sreemathi’s remarks questioning whether Kunhikrishnan had his wife’s backing triggered a sharp response from his wife, P P Komalavalli, who issued an open letter calling the claim false. Sreemathi also alleged that Kunhikrishnan had unsuccessfully tried to meet writer T Padmanabhan, an assertion he denies.

Despite the churn, the CPM’s organisational grip remains formidable. The constituency comprises Payyannur municipality and six panchayats. The LDF retains control over most of these local bodies.

On paper, the CPM’s structure remains intact, its vote base still formidable. But the emergence of an insider-turned-challenger, the persistent allegation that the MLA is tainted, and signs that the cadre believe it, have introduced an element of uncertainty rarely associated with Payyannur. The CPM hopes it results only in a trimming of votes, not a decisive shift