Nemom, Manjeshwar, Palakkad, Kunnathunad, Pala, Kottarakkara, Peravoor and Thripunithura- Onmanorama tracks the battle in 12 closely fought constituencies where stakes are high and margins razor-thin. Our team will capture the ground-level pulse and update the poll-meter.

The contest in Pala is no longer about K M Mani's legacy, making it one of the most closely watched battles in Kerala. Though candidates in Pala were finalised well ahead of the official announcement, both the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the BJP appear to have gained an early edge over the United Democratic Front (UDF) in campaign visibility. Across the constituency, posters of BJP candidate Shone George and Kerala Congress (M) chairman Jose K Mani dominate the landscape, with UDF leaders themselves acknowledging that incumbent Mani C Kappen has lagged behind in this aspect.

The UDF, however, is attempting to compensate through groundwork, having completed an initial round of house visits and election conventions. Kappen, now contesting as a UDF-backed independent, is yet to be allotted an election symbol- a factor his supporters cite for the relatively subdued campaign material on the ground.

The Kappen camp has launched a sharp attack on both the LDF government and Jose K Mani, alleging that the KCM leader, despite being a key LDF ally and a Rajya Sabha MP, has obstructed development initiatives in the constituency.

The KCM, in turn, has mounted a counterattack, accusing Kappen of underperformance since 2019. Party leaders argue that the MLA has little to show beyond minor road works in rural pockets, claiming that even those were largely driven by government intervention. They point to unfinished bridges in Pala town and long-pending bypass projects as evidence of what they describe as a "failed tenure."

Amid this political blame game, a broader sentiment appears to be emerging among voters- that Pala has witnessed a slowdown in development since K M Mani's death. Sensing this dissatisfaction, the BJP is attempting to position itself as an alternative. By fielding Shone George, son of former Kerala Congress leader P C George, the party is aiming to tap into both familiarity and discontent. With Christians accounting for nearly 45 per cent of the electorate in a constituency of around 1.75 lakh voters, the BJP's strategy is clearly focused on making inroads into this crucial vote bank.

BJP has stepped up outreach efforts within the community, including visits to bishops' houses and participation in religious and social events.

The BJP's push to consolidate Christian support in Pala is rooted in the 69,804 votes secured by Mani C Kappen in the 2021 Assembly polls. Congress leaders believe that Kappen received significant backing from nuns and priests in the constituency, which helped raise his vote tally from 54,137 in the 2019 bypoll.

However, the party faces challenges within the community. Many families in Pala have at least one member working as a missionary in North India, and their accounts of the difficulties faced in BJP-ruled states continue to influence local perceptions. Incidents such as the arrest of two nuns in Chhattisgarh last year have further added to this sentiment.

The UDF and Kappen, meanwhile, acknowledge that the 50 per cent vote share they secured in the previous election may be difficult to retain in 2026. Party leaders privately admit that some erosion is likely, particularly among sections of the Christian vote. However, they remain confident that any losses will not be decisive, projecting a comfortable victory margin.

For the LDF and Jose K Mani, the challenge goes beyond electoral arithmetic. While KCM continues to project Pala as its traditional stronghold, Jose has struggled to command the same emotional connection that his father enjoyed.

UDF's stellar show in local body polls is seen as a warning sign for Jose. Within the party too, there are murmurs about leadership perception. Minister Roshy Augustine, who rose through grassroots politics, is often seen as having a stronger connection with workers and voters alike. In contrast, critics argue that Jose has yet to build that level of rapport.

In several instances, Jose appeared reluctant to assert his candidature in Pala. On more than one occasion, Roshy stepped in to publicly declare that Jose would contest from the constituency—an intervention that, for many, projected Roshy as the more assertive leader.

Political opponents have been quick to capitalise on this perception, often arguing that Jose has not been able to match his father, K M Mani's stature. The KCM, however, dismisses such criticism as part of a coordinated campaign against its leader, claiming that certain online platforms are actively spreading misinformation about Jose.

Rubber and development
Development has emerged as a central theme in the campaign, with both sides trading allegations over stalled projects. The Josecamp has criticised Kappen over delays in key initiatives, including the river view road, the Lalam bridge, and proposed bypasses.

The UDF, in response, highlights improvements in tourism and infrastructure, pointing to better road connectivity to various destinations.

Alongside development, rubber- Pala's key cash crop- has emerged as a political flashpoint. Both the LDF and the UDF have blamed the BJP-led central government for the fall in prices. The Kappen camp has also targeted Jose's earlier promise in 2021 to raise rubber prices to ₹250, contrasting it with the revised ₹200 figure this time. The BJP, meanwhile, has largely remained silent on the issue, despite its potential to influence a significant section of farmers.

For Jose K Mani, the April 9 poll- coinciding with his father's death anniversary- carries deep emotional significance and a chance to reclaim political ground. Kappen, on the other hand, is banking on his incumbency and grassroots connect to retain the seat, while the BJP hopes to emerge as a decisive factor by cutting into traditional vote bases.