Onmanorama tracks the battle in 12 closely fought constituencies where stakes are high and margins razor-thin, including Nemom, Manjeshwar, Palakkad, Kunnathunad, Pala, Kottarakkara, Peravoor and Thripunithura. Our team will capture the ground-level pulse and update the poll-meter.

Kochi: For thirty-five years, the story of Thripunithura was also about K Babu, the Congress veteran who turned a traditionally Left-leaning seat into a personal fortress. But as the 2026 Assembly elections approach, the fortress is unguarded. With Babu’s retirement, the air of invincibility surrounding the UDF has vanished, and in its place, a new narrative is forming.

The seat is all set to witness a tight contest between the LDF and the UDF with the NDA also eyeing to make its own political statement. However, through a combination of the ‘Babu factor’, early strategic strikes and a fragmentation of the opposition, the LDF’s KN Unnikrishnan has secured a slight but distinct early upper hand over the UDF’s Deepak Joy and the NDA’s Anjali Nair. It is no longer a battle of personal charisma, but a clinical game of political arithmetic and geographical dominance.

Breaking the Babu myth
To understand the LDF’s current edge, one must look at the vacuum left by K Babu. Since his entry in 1991, Babu’s margins were often substantial, reflecting a personal mandate rather than a simple party swing. He defeated CPM heavyweight MM Lawrence by 4,946 votes in 1991, Gopi Kottamurikkal by 14,773 in 1996, and reached a staggering peak in 2001 by defeating K Chandran Pillai by 24,296 votes. Even in 2006 and 2011, he maintained comfortable gaps of 7,342 and 15,778 votes by beating KN Raveendranath and CM Dinesh Mani, respectively.

The only true anomaly was 2016, when M Swaraj wrested the seat by 4,467 votes amid the bar bribery scandal that shook Kerala politics and the Oommen Chandy government when Babu was the excise minister. While Babu reclaimed the seat from Swaraj in 2021, the margin was a mere 992 votes, the only time in his winning history that the gap was truly razor-thin.

This was the first clear sign that the UDF’s grip was structural, not just incidental, and without Babu’s name on the ballot, that structure is under immense pressure, giving an edge to the LDF, which has a strong cadre network and vote bank in the constituency.

The LDF views his absence as a massive advantage. For decades, Babu held a personal sway over the voters. For the UDF, they must prove they can win the seat based on the party’s strength and Deepak Joy’s fresh appeal, rather than on Babu's personal charisma.

‘KN Unnikrishnan vs Deepak Joy 2.0’
The LDF’s opening move was fast. Hours after the election notification, they announced KN Unnikrishnan as their candidate, giving him a strong head start in the campaign. The Congress could finalise Kochi deputy mayor Deepak Joy as Babu’s successor only after much delay, effectively forcing the UDF into a defensive posture. This sets the stage for a high-stakes rematch: in the 2021 Assembly elections in Vypin, Unnikrishnan defeated the UDF’s Deepak Joy by a significant 8,201 votes. With Unnikrishnan contesting from Thripunithura, the LDF isn't just fielding a candidate; they are fielding a proven winner against the same opponent.

While the rivals allege Unnikrishnan was moved to escape the alleged anti-incumbency in Vypin, the LDF highlights his deep organisational roots as the CPM’s former Area Secretary in the region, making him a familiar face. Conversely, Deepak Joy, despite being the deputy mayor and reportedly “handpicked” by Babu himself, is struggling with the “outsider” tag. He faces the daunting task of inheriting a voter connection that Babu built over three decades through relentless personal presence, a feat difficult to replicate in a single campaign cycle.

The geography of power
The LDF’s confidence is further grounded in the 2025 local body election data. While the UDF cumulatively leads by less than 1,000 votes across the assembly segment, retaining Maradu municipality and winning Kumbalam and Udayamperoor panchayats, the LDF has captured the high-density urban core.

Of the ten Kochi Corporation divisions within this constituency, the LDF rules eight. The UDF manages to hold only Edakochi South and Palluruthy. These eight LDF-led divisions are home to a strong Latin Catholic and Muslim population, providing Unnikrishnan with a fortified base that the UDF is finding hard to penetrate.

NDA’s gamble in A-Class seat
The final piece of the puzzle is the NDA’s gamble with actress Anjali Nair, representing the Twenty20. In Thripunithura town, pro-BJP sentiment remains strong, with the NDA aiming to consolidate a significant share of upper-caste Hindu votes. This support base enabled the BJP to emerge as the single largest party in the Thripunithura municipality and assume power for the first time in the 2025 local body elections.

However, beyond the town, the constituency has a substantial Ezhava community presence. Recognising this, both the LDF and the UDF have fielded Ezhava candidates to tap into this crucial vote bank. In fact, community support played a decisive role in Babu’s earlier victories.

Given that Thripunithura is considered an “A-class” seat for the BJP, and with the party having captured power in the municipality, the NDA was expected to perform stronger in the Assembly elections. The absence of Babu further presented an opportunity for the BJP to expand its influence in the constituency.

However, these prospects suffered a setback when the seat was ceded to Twenty20, the NDA’s newest ally. The decision has not gone down well with sections of BJP supporters, though Twenty20 maintains that it will retain the NDA’s core vote base.

In a constituency where the Ezhava community and upper-caste Hindu votes are decisive, the NDA’s performance acts as a direct drain on the UDF. The outcome now hinges on vote consolidation. If NDA votes remain intact, it is likely to benefit Unnikrishnan. If there is a split in NDA votes, it could tilt the balance in favour of Deepak Joy. At present, the NDA is making concerted efforts to ensure that BJP votes consolidate behind Anjali Nair. If that consolidation happens, it is expected to work to the advantage of the LDF, whose committed cadre base remains largely immune to such third-front surges.