Mani C Kappen increases lead over Jose K Mani in Pala

Pala: UDF candidate Mani C Kappen has taken a decisive lead over LDF’s Jose K Mani as counting progresses in Pala, one of the most closely watched contests in the 2026 Kerala Assembly election.

After three hours of counting, Kappen is ahead of Jose by 3,356 votes, while BJP candidate Shone George trailed in third place. The trend broadly aligns with pre-poll projections, including Onmanorama’s Poll Meter survey and the Manorama News C-Voter survey, both of which had indicated an advantage for Kappen in Pala.

Long regarded as the political heartland of Kerala Congress politics, Pala has once again emerged as a key battleground in Kottayam district. The constituency was the stronghold of late Kerala Congress (M) stalwart K M Mani, who represented the seat continuously until 2016.

Following K M Mani’s death in 2019, Pala became central to a series of political realignments and leadership battles within Kerala Congress (M). Both the bypoll held after his death and the 2021 Assembly election significantly altered the constituency’s political dynamics.

The 2026 contest is being viewed as a prestige battle for KCM chairman Jose K Mani, who is seeking to reclaim the seat from sitting MLA Kappen. BJP has fielded Shone George, son of former Poonjar MLA P C George, aiming to expand its footprint in the Christian-majority constituency.

The outcome in Pala is politically crucial for Jose, whose decision to shift KCM from the UDF to the LDF after his father’s death marked a major turning point in Kerala politics.

The move came in the aftermath of the 2019 Pala bypoll, where Jose-backed candidate Jose Tom Pulikkunnel lost to Mani C Kappen, who was then contesting as the LDF candidate. The defeat, coupled with internal disputes over party leadership and symbol allocation with senior leader P J Joseph, eventually led Jose to split the party and formally join the LDF ahead of the 2021 Assembly polls.

The alliance switch yielded gains for both the LDF and KCM in Kottayam. In the 2021 elections, the LDF won five of the district’s nine seats, while KCM secured victories in Kanjirappally, Changanassery and Poonjar.

However, the election was personally disappointing for Jose K Mani, who lost his maiden Assembly contest to Kappen by a margin of 15,378 votes. The scale of the defeat raised questions about Jose’s electoral influence in his home turf.

Kappen, meanwhile, benefited from contesting under the UDF banner, which traditionally enjoys strong support in Pala. His victory margin jumped significantly from 2,943 votes in the 2019 bypoll to over 15,000 in 2021.

The BJP factor has added a new dimension to this year’s contest. Shone George is considered a stronger candidate than the BJP’s previous entrants in the constituency and is expected to attract a sizeable share of votes.

The BJP had recorded its best performance in Pala in the 2016 Assembly polls, securing 24,821 votes even as K M Mani retained the seat. However, the party’s vote share dipped in subsequent elections, polling 18,044 and 10,869 votes respectively.

This time, political observers estimate that Shone could significantly improve the BJP tally. A higher BJP vote share is expected to alter traditional voting patterns in Pala, with analysts suggesting it could impact the UDF’s prospects and tighten the race.

Political observers say the contest became more fluid during the final phase of campaigning. Controversial remarks by P C George targeting the Pala Bishop, along with concerns among sections of the Christian community over the Centre’s FCRA-related measures, are believed to have affected BJP momentum.

At the same time, Kappen is seen as having regained ground in the final stretch through strong alliance coordination and his grassroots connect with voters, with many observers drawing parallels between his approachable style and that of K M Mani.

With counting still underway, all eyes remain on whether Jose can wrest back the party’s traditional bastion or if Kappen can retain his hold on the constituency.