Does delay in picking Kerala CM suggest 'high command' preference for Venugopal

Who the Chief Minister of Kerala will be is still a matter of intense speculation even a week after the results were out on May 4. Nonetheless, it looks like the list of CM probables has shrunk. Left standing are AICC general secretary in charge of organisation K C Venugopal and opposition leader in the 15th Kerala Assembly V D Satheesan.

Veteran Ramesh Chennithala, by publicly agreeing to abide by whatever the ‘high command’ decides, has virtually opted out of the race. With the remaining two unwilling to relent, the ‘high command’ is staring at a stalemate. 

To find a way out of the political maze, the AICC has been forced to initiate a fresh round of negotiations. After declaring that there would be no more discussions within the Kerala unit of the party, the AICC has invited all active former KPCC presidents to Delhi on May 12 for a meeting with the ‘high command’. It is said that the proposal to sound out senior Kerala leaders had gone from veteran A K Antony who himself is a former KPCC president. A second round of discussions will be held online with UDF allies, too.

If a decision has still not been taken, it could also be that the ‘high command’ has found the suitability of both the candidates for the CM post equally compelling. 

It is said that former presidents V M Sudheeran, Mullappally Ramachandran, K Muraleedharan, M M Hassan and K Sudhakaran have received the ‘high command’ invite. Sudheeran and Muraleedharan have confirmed this to the media.

Both say that they are in the dark about the intentions of the ‘high command’. “We will know why we have been called only when we reach there,” Muraleedharan said. Sudheeran, too, could not throw more light on the issue. 

They are also not sure whether each of them will meet the ‘high command’ individually or together. Muraleedharan said that he did not have anything more to say than what he had already told the ‘high command’ representatives Mukul Wasnik and Ajay Makken on May 7. 

Since Muraleedharan is a freshly elected MLA, he is the only member in this cohort of ex-presidents who had already been heard by the ‘high command’ representatives. 

The others - Mullappally, Hassan, Sudhakaran and Sudheeran - now get to make their case. Save for Sudheeran, the others, though not very enthusiastic about Venugopal, are perceived to have a distaste for Satheesan. Sudhakaran had openly articulated his preference, first for Chennithala and later for Venugopal.   

Senior Congress leaders Onmanorama talked to said that the invitation to the former KPCC chiefs is a clear indication that the ‘high command’ had chosen Venugopal.

“At least, Venugopal is on top of their mind,” a KPCC general secretary said. “If he wanted to make Satheesan the CM, Kharge only had to announce his name. The ‘high command’ knows that even the MLAs who stand by Venugopal would not be overly bothered. Some secretly prefer Satheesan or Chennithala. But the choice of Venugopal is fraught with political risks. That's why the delay. The AICC now wants to create some legitimacy for Venugopal by getting senior leaders to back him, and this way create a favourable public sentiment in favour of him,” the leader said.

Another leader echoed a similar sentiment but said that the ‘high command’ could be worried about the by-elections that would be necessitated if Venugopal is made the CM. “The Muslim League has already conveyed that a win is not guaranteed because there will be strong public disapproval if someone who had not contested is made the CM. Perhaps the ‘high command’ wants the opinion of senior leaders on this before announcing Venugopal's name,” the leader said.

He flagged yet another concern. “What if the Election Commission, which is under the control of the BJP, notify the by-elections within a month of the swearing in,” he said.

Even if the by-elections are won, it is still considered self-defeating to impose two on Kerala; one to get Venugopal elected from an Assembly seat and the second to elect a new MP from the Alappuzha Lok Sabha seat after he resigns.

“These two will energise the CPM cadres. If there are no elections, there is every chance that the CPM would be distracted, perhaps even be crushed beyond repair, by the insurrection that would inevitably be triggered by this massive loss,” a Congress leader said.

Compared to the dangers associated with picking Venugopal, Satheesan seems like a simple uncomplicated choice. The inordinate delay is sign that ‘high command’ prefers Venugopal but, considering the risks, is seeking additional assurances. If the former KPCC chiefs and a second round of talks with allies, particularly the League, fail to offer any sureties, the ‘high command’ will be forced to go with Satheesan.